PICES undertakes a new science program, FUTURE (Forecasting and Understanding Trends, Uncertainty and Responses of North Pacific Marine Ecosystems), to understand the responses of marine ecosystems in the North Pacific to climate change and human activities, having the major questions: 1) how does ecosystem structure and function determine an ecosystem's response to natural and anthropogenic forcing; 2) how do physical and chemical processes respond to natural and anthropogenic forcing and how are ecosystems likely to respond to these changes in abiotic processes; 3) how do human activities impact coastal marine ecosystems and their interactions with offshore and terrestrial systems. We have only a limited ability to forecast how marine ecosystems will be affected by the changing global climate. Consequently, we still have limited knowledge on the assessment and management of marine ecosystems. Under this situation, it is necessary to improve our understanding of ecosystem structure and function, ecosystem stability and resilience, and to understand and quantify the impacts of human activities and climate on marine ecosystems. It is urgent that we develop and adopt a comprehensive ecosystem-based approach which will be required to manage depleted and deteriorated marine ecosystems. To this end, breakthroughs have to be made in many areas, including evaluation of ecosystem status. Submissions are encouraged that describe indicators of atmospheric and oceanographic variability, habitat quality, biodiversity, productivity, sustainability, carrying capacity and socioeconomic benefits on geographic scales ranging from marine ranching systems to large marine ecosystems.

The World Summit on the Sustainable Development recommended implementation of the ecosystem-based management by 2010. Achievement of this goal will require holistic assessment and management of fisheries resources and their associated habitat and ecosystems. Therefore, consideration must be given to ecological interactions of target species with predators, competitors, and prey species, bycatch species, interactions between fishes and their habitat, and the effects of fishing on fish stocks and their ecosystems. The challenge associated with implementation of ecosystem-based management is the design of an approach that is capable of capturing the complexity of the system, while at the same time dealing with the varying quality and quantity of available information. The Ecological Risk Assessment for the Effects of Fishing (ERAEF) approach developed by Australia and the Marine Stewardship Council's Fisheries Assessment Methodology provide two examples of pragmatic approaches. This session encourages contributions that: 1) describe the data and/or information requirements for the application of ecosystem-based assessments, 2) review existing and emerging ecosystem-based assessment methodologies, 3) describe indicators and reference points for these assessments, 4) identify research activities needed for developing an integrated framework for assessments, and 5) discuss indices for evaluating and assessing the ecosystem status and management. Selected oral and poster presentations from this session will be considered to be published in a peer-reviewed journal.

As management strategies become more ecosystem-based and climate-driven, there is a need for more information on the role of species interactions and oceanographic variability in regulating fisheries resources. The early life stage of fish and invertebrates has been shown to be critical in determining year-class success and subsequent recruitment to the fisheries. This session will examine changes in the abundance, distribution, and ecological relationships of early life stages (eggs to juveniles) of important fish and invertebrate species in relation to climate fluctuations. Studies examining these stages in relation to adult recruitment and their use as indicators of ecosystem stress or variability are invited. Examples of the uses of ichthyoplankton or juvenile surveys in the assessment or management of stocks and in forecasting future trends in fisheries are highly encouraged. The session is especially interested in papers that examine the role of early life stage work relative to ecosystem structure and vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change, with particular reference to the processes of recruitment.

Mitigation includes any method that can reduce the impact or severity of harmful algal blooms (HABs). These methods involve both physical means, such as dispersal of clay to cause flocculation of cells from surface waters, and preventative means, such as better monitoring of coastal waters, allowing selective closures of shellfish beds (in contrast to coast-wide closures). The capability for mitigation and the choice of mitigative tools depend upon the bloom-forming species, the severity of the event, and the frequency and intensity of monitoring in a region. Presentations will represent the comprehensive nature of HAB mitigation within the Pacific Rim nations.

This session will focus on the practical measures utilizing submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) such as seaweeds and sea grasses in coping with climate change in coastal regions. Discussion is expected on immediate and practical SAV measures that mitigate and adapt against global warming and sea level rise. Participants will present papers highlighting their ideas on such practical measures against climate change and global warming as well as on other pertinent subjects.

Marine spatial planning is receiving support from a growing number of PICES member countries as a means to develop a strategic approach to offshore ocean usage and resolve spatial conflict issues. While the concepts of integrated management (IM) and supporting marine spatial planning (MSP) are now often referred to at the policy level, there is generally only a vague and patchy understanding of how they might be practically implemented. The most obvious elements of MSP include marine protected or spatially regulated areas designed to meet one or more objectives of IM. This requires identifying and mapping marine features and processes, along with human activities and associated pressures and impacts. The session aims to explore the latest thinking and developments in MSP. Contributions are therefore invited on practical examples of MSP approaches or on any of its sub-components, including: 1) role of MSP in achieving IM objectives - success stories and problem areas to avoid in practical implementation of MSP; 2) criteria for identifying, mapping and assessing (based on observations and/or predictions) cumulative impacts of multiple human activities, including theoretical developments on community sensitivity, resilience and other features of ecological significance (e.g., mapping of human activities/impacts using spatially-resolved data or model predictions); and 3) criteria and guidelines used to design and locate MPAs to meet cross-sectoral IM objectives, i.e. not just fisheries or nature conservation objectives; included in this are theoretical considerations on interconnectivity amongst these areas. We are particularly interested in practical examples of marine planning or management systems or processes that bring together any combination of the above.

As the technology for the Ocean Sciences and Engineering is advanced rapidly, the real-time data production will revolutionize the field investigation and laboratory analysis in many ways which will have the impact over the entire oceanographic paradigm in the end. This session will review the state of art technology for the ocean investigation on real-time and/or near real-time basis and will discuss the impact on the research and educational horizons made possible by it. Each nation will demonstrate their ocean monitoring network and their application. The exhibits from ocean monitoring companies are to occur in conjunction with this session.

Accumulation of anthropogenic carbon and associated changes in ocean chemistry ("ocean acidification") affect all of the world's oceans. Anthropogenic CO₂ has multiple feedbacks to ocean chemistry and biology, such as reduction of calcification, shifts in phytoplankton species composition, and dissolution of particulate or sedimentary carbonates. The carbon system can also be affected by other anthropogenic factors such as changes in river flow and aeolian dust deposition. Carbon and nutrient biogeochemistry will be affected both directly and indirectly by ocean acidification. This session invites papers that address the biogeochemistry of anthropogenic carbon (processes controlling its distribution, processes by which it alters ocean chemistry), other anthropogenic impacts on carbon and nutrient cycles, acidification impacts on marine biota, and feedbacks among these.

The prediction of responses of marine ecosystems to future climate scenarios is an important objective of PICES' new science program, FUTURE (Forecasting and Understanding Trends, Uncertainty and Responses of North Pacific Marine Ecosystems). However, the marine ecosystem is part of the earth system and its prediction needs integrated knowledge from physical, chemical, and biological perspectives. Earth system science is an interdisciplinary approach that integrates anthropology, atmospheric science, biology, oceanography, geophysics and policy to provide predictions of ecosystem response to climate change. The earth system is complex with non-linear feedbacks, threshold responses, and, in some cases, irreversible change. Understanding the mechanisms controlling these system properties is critical to accurately forecasting future states of nature in a changing climate. Moreover, conducting large-scale experiments on the earth system is impossible. Therefore, regional marine ecosystem models should include the earth system science links that are essential for producing better predictions of marine ecosystem response to future climate scenarios. This session will focus on multi-disciplinary coupled models and theoretical, observational and experimental studies designed to provide outlooks and/or forecasts of marine ecosystems. Outlooks and forecasts differ in that outlooks are qualitative with (often) unbounded uncertainties, while forecasts are often quantitative, but must have bounded certainties. Presentations that focus on both long-term and short-term predictions, and that link two or more disciplines (such as physical oceanography, climate, ecosystem dynamics, marine resource management, or socio-economic systems) are welcome. Presentations that explore what additional information or data are needed to provide outlooks and forecasts, and especially to transition from providing outlooks to providing forecasts are desired.

Oral and poster presentations on biological aspects of the Annual Meeting theme are welcome, as well as papers on all aspects of biological oceanography in the North Pacific and its marginal seas (except those related to the BIO-sponsored Topic Sessions S3 and S8). Early career scientists are especially encouraged to submit papers to this session.

Papers addressing general topics in fishery science and fisheries oceanography in the North Pacific and its marginal seas are invited (except S2, S3 and S6 topics).

Papers are invited on all aspects of physical oceanography and climate in the North Pacific and its marginal seas (except S8 and S9 topics).

In the subarctic North Pacific Ocean, iron plays a central role in regulating phytoplankton productivity and pelagic ecosystem structure. There are several processes that supply iron from land, shelf sediment and deep waters to the upper ocean. The goal of this workshop is to examine mechanisms of these iron supply processes, including atmospheric deposition of mineral aerosols and combustion substances, lateral transport of coastal iron-enriched waters by eddies and boundary currents, and deep vertical mixing during winter or by strong tidal currents at narrow straits. Such knowledge will be used to identify key biogeochemical pathways that should be introduced into the ecosystem models and to plan international scientific programs for better understanding of marine ecosystem responses to changing iron supplies in the North Pacific.

Some jellyfish make massive blooms in the North Pacific coastal and oceanic waters, damaging fisheries and causing large social and economic problems. To date, there have been discussions about bloom mechanisms, distribution, and biological and ecological characteristics of the jellyfish species. However, there are limitations in understanding the dynamics of these massive blooms and providing scientific information to management. One major limitation is standards for sampling and a lack of monitoring. The goals of this workshop are: 1) to understand the problems and develop techniques for estimating concentrations of jellyfishes; 2) to evaluate the status of national/regional monitoring systems for jellyfishes; 3) to emphasize why standard methods and international monitoring are needed; and 4) to develop an implementation plan and schedule for improving abundance and distribution information on jellyfish blooms.

In many marine ecosystems from tropical to arctic waters, marine mammals are showing considerable changes in abundance. In general, cetaceans, recovering from historical exploitation, are increasing, whereas some pinniped species are declining regionally, while others are increasing. Models of marine mammal prey consumption indicate that ~20-60% of secondary production may be taken by these top consumers. Therefore, marine mammals may exert "top-down" control on food webs, as well as functioning as competitors to fish, seabirds, and humans for mid-trophic level food resources. One of the goals of PICES and ICES science is to enhance forecasts of ecosystem change attributable to climate and anthropogenic forcings. Given this goal, the workshop will review and assess rates of marine mammal population and prey consumption changes in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Presentations are invited on changes in marine mammal abundance, distribution, diet, and prey consumption. Discussion will focus on how to best integrate this information into models of ecosystem dynamics, with and without climate change and fishing impacts.

The objective of the Marine Ecosystem Model Inter-comparison Project (MEMIP) is to compare the performance of various lower trophic level marine ecosystem simulation models at predicting the abundance and distribution of zooplankton functional groups. Models with high performance and broad generality will be priority candidates for examining the state of marine ecosystem's response to future global climate change.

This workshop will be technical, "hands-on", and focus on beginning to parameterize, execute and calibrate various 1-D versions of biogeochemical lower trophic level (LTL) marine ecosystem models. Multiple ecosystem models will be configured to three Pacific Ocean "location testbeds". The 1-D physical forcing for each site will be fixed (e.g., to enforce a common physical environment) so that differences observed among simulations at a single site are due only to differences in ecosystem models. The three testbeds will be selected based on the availability of data sets suitable for this exercise-data for multiple years, good seasonal coverage, and breadth of state variables spanning inorganic nutrients, chlorophyll (or preferably phytoplankton carbon or nitrogen), and zooplankton biomass measures are needed. We plan to apply LTL models to Oyashio locations such as stations along Japan's A line, the middle shelf of the eastern Bering Sea (i.e., at mooring M2), and a shelf station on the Newport line to represent the California Current upwelling system. The models will be used to identify mechanisms that are important controls on the level and variability of secondary production and to bound the levels of uncertainty in model predictions by calculating ensemble statistics. Comparisons of identical ecosystem model formulations (e.g., not tuned to each specific location) at multiple locations will provide information on the spatial-temporal robustness of particular model structures and parameterizations.

The methods and gears used to capture fish affect how many unwanted fish are captured (bycatch) and can disrupt other ecosystem components. Bycatch and discards significantly impede the sustainable use of living marine resources that are captured by commercial fisheries. To minimize unintended impacts on the environment, commercial fisheries should strive to improve selectivity to reduce the bycatch and discards of non-target species, as well as undersized commercial species. Research is exploring other effects of fishing gears on ecosystems, such as habitat damage and ghost fishing of derelict fishing gear, and developing new technologies to minimize such unintended impacts. This workshop will focus on the linkages between fishing technologies, ecosystems and ecosystem-based management, as well as on recent methodologies to reduce unintended effects of fishing. Particular emphasis will be placed on studies that have changed commercial fishing practices.

Analogous to the seeds of terrestrial plants, phytoplankton cysts are the hardy resting forms that allow phytoplankton (usually flagellates) to survive during extreme environmental conditions. These cysts fall out of the water column into sediments often after large blooms, thereby forming seed beds. Characterization of the distribution of seed beds in coastal waters can assist with forecasting the intensity of HAB events. However, proper identification is often difficult as many cysts can look alike. This workshop will focus on new methods for identification of cysts as well as findings on their ecology and physiology. Presentations are encouraged on known distributions of cysts in coastal waters (cyst mapping), and studies on their ecophysiology.

Open-water marine aquaculture has ongoing interactions with its surrounding environment. Some of these interactions have the potential to cause negative and positive effects on the other. For example, pathogens may be transmitted from wild reservoirs to cultured animals and vice versa with the consequence of disease and mortality. Another example is the dispersal of nutrients from a farm site which in some instances negatively impacts the benthos while in other areas may enhance a nutrient-deficient marine zone or contribute to the culture of another aquatic species. Also, changing marine environments, including those impacted by global warming and ocean acidification, have the potential to affect these ecosystem interactions so as to investigate the culture of new farmed species - species that may perform better in altered environments. The PICES Working Group on Environmental Interactions of Marine Aquaculture (WGEIMA) has been charged to evaluate existing and potentially new interactions and to develop models that assess the risk of these interactions to include escapes of farmed marine animals (considerations for genetics, competition, and pathogen transfer), discharge of effluent from culture facilities, use of non-native species in culture, and the exchange of pathogens between farmed and wild aquatic animals. Major goals of this workshop include: 1) discussion of tools and models currently used by member countries to assess types of interactions and risks posed by them; 2) developing consensus on aquaculture technologies and indicators of interactions that will be used in completing the terms of reference and preparing report of WGEIMA to include species and methods of culture; and 3) identifying the process by which the work will be carried out under the terms of reference.

Understanding the dynamics that control climate variability in the Pacific basin is essential for exploring the degree of predictability of the ocean-atmosphere and sea-ice climate systems of the North Pacific. The goal of this workshop is to improve the conceptual and quantitative frameworks used by the PICES community to interpret low-frequency climate variability in the Pacific basin, ranging from interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Contributions are invited on a broad range of topics including: 1) studies that link regional to basin scale dynamics; 2) investigations of "regime shift", specifically the extent to which sharp transitions in the climate system are predictable and connected with low-frequency variations in the ocean-atmosphere and sea-ice systems; (3) studies that separate the stochastic and deterministic components of low-frequency climate fluctuations; (4) analysis of long-term observations collected in regional environments across the Pacific, specifically their relationship to large-scale climate processes as opposed to local-scale dynamics; (5) climate change and how it may impact the statistics of Pacific climate (e.g., frequency of "regime shifts"); and (6) more generally studies that propose new mechanisms underlying low-frequency Pacific climate variability.

Mesoscale eddies move through the ocean carrying physical, biological, and chemical anomalies. They translate over space scales of hundreds to thousands of kilometers and exist for periods lasting from months to years. Eddies are found throughout the North Pacific Ocean in association with strong boundary currents like the Kuroshio and Oyashio and the Alaskan Stream, and also with North Pacific eastern boundary currents like the California and Alaska Currents. They are also prevalent in marginal seas. Generation and evolution of eddies are thought to be related to the shear instability of boundary currents like the Kuroshio, and topographic features in the California and Alaska Currents. Mesoscale eddies affect the structure of marine plankton in various ways. Horizontal advection and vertical mixing by eddies contribute to the generation of high chlorophyll concentration off the coast. They draw shelf water containing nutrients and planktons into the deep offshore waters. Mesoscale eddies are also important for survival of larvae. Eddy pumping also plays a role in episodic nutrient injections into the photic zone resulting in enhanced primary production inside the eddy for cyclonic eddies. For anticyclonic eddies, ageostrophic upwelling and divergent Ekman pumping due to winds over the eddies yield upwelling within the eddy. This workshop will address: 1) dynamical characteristics of mesoscale eddies in different parts of PICES domain, focusing on their similarity and difference; 2) influences of eddies in constituting the dominant physical forcing on the ecosystems; and 3) expected future eddy activities and their possible impacts on North Pacific ecosystems.

This workshop will be a major step forward in the implementation of the North Pacific carbon data synthesis. Investigators who submit data to the synthesis will collectively review the progress of the QA/QC process, and discuss the degree of success of the techniques applied and whether different or additional approaches are necessary. This is a highly "hands-on" activity that will involve data originators who submit data to the synthesis and investigators participating in the synthesis processes, and will lead directly to value-added data products and collective publications.