The keynote lecture at the Science Board Symposium, titled “Canada's changing Pacific marine ecosystems: forecasts, uncertainties, potential consequences, and communication”, will be given by Dr. R. Ian Perry (Pacific Biological Station, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada).
One goal of the PICES FUTURE program is to improve our capability to convey in a clear and effective manner how North Pacific marine environments may change due to natural and anthropogenic stressors, including climate change, and ultimately how societies will be affected by these changes. This new goal requires advancement in scientific communication which has largely been uncharted territory for PICES. To facilitate advancement in this new area, the PICES Annual Meeting in 2013 will focus on four major issues pertaining to scientific communication: Products, Communicating Uncertainty, Decision Support Tools, and Human Dimensions. Products will include integration of outputs from field observations and models to provide comprehensive overviews of ecosystem status, trends and change for different audiences that include international experts, resource managers and the general public. Communicating Uncertainty will include the qualification or quantification of uncertainty associated with status, outlooks and forecasts of ecosystem changes. Decision Support Tools will include processing scientific outputs for management advice in an open and transparent way that will allow scientists to provide results that quantify the benefits and risks associated with different management strategies. Lastly, Human Dimensions will include the integration of social sciences in decision-making with respect to marine policy or management to capture the economic, cultural or societal values associated with sustainable ecosystems – this integration is the first step to communicating the social significance of predicted impacts from climate or ecosystem changes. In addition to these four focal issues, the Annual Meeting will also discuss the scientific basis of FUTURE products such as the regional nature of marine ecosystem change, the causes of change, the challenges of attribution, and the future of change.Email your questions to Session
Email your questions to Session 1 Invited Speakers
Topic Session (½-day )
Are marine ecosystems of the North Pacific becoming more variable?
Steven Bograd (USA) Elizabeth Logerwell (USA) William Sydeman (USA) Yutaka Watanuki (Japan)
A primary forecast from Global Climate Models (GCMs) is increasing variability in the physical and biological attributes of marine ecosystems (IPCC 2007). It is also well known from oceanography, marine ecology, and fisheries biology that variability is a key attribute of population stability/instability. Increasing spatial and temporal variance has also been hypothesized to be a precursor to long-term marine ecosystem change or “regime shifts”. In this session, we invite papers that test hypotheses of increasing marine ecosystem variability relative to global climate change, be they of natural or anthropogenic origins. In particular, we invite studies that (1) address the theoretical basis for variance changes in North Pacific marine ecosystems using GCMs, paleo-ecological data, or experimental evidence, (2) directly test an hypothesis of “increasing ecosystem variability” using observational physical and/or biological data, and (3) consider how human social and economic systems and structures may be affected by increasing ecosystem variability, including the possible need for modifications in conservation and management strategies to deal with greater unpredictability and extremes in ecological conditions. A special volume for the primary literature will be investigated pending sufficient subscription to this session, or alternatively, a meta-analysis/review paper may be developed.
Email your questions to Session 2 Convenors
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Topic Session (½-day )
Status, trends and effects of pollutants in coastal ecosystems: Implications for wildlife and humans
Olga Lukyanova (Russia) Won Joon Shim (Korea)
Marine pollutants can impact the quality and/or abundance of invertebrates, fish, and wildlife. In addition, the contamination of seafood can diminish the viability of commercial species and/or deliver potentially harmful contaminants to human consumers. While pollutant topics vary geographically, a number of priority pollutants are common throughout the northern hemisphere. This session will highlight a number of practical approaches to assessing the status, trends and effects of emerging and/or priority pollutants in the PICES region, as well as examples from other parts of the world. Some of these approaches are presently being used as indicators of marine environmental quality in some jurisdictions. Examples include the ‘Mussel Watch’ program for monitoring metals and persistent organic pollutants (POPs), spatial and temporal trends in POPs in seabird eggs, and effects of POPs and hydrocarbons on the health of marine biota. Some of these efforts have proven very useful in revealing improvements to marine ecosystem health subsequent to the implementation of regulations, including the dramatic declines in PCB, DDT, dioxin and organotin levels and associated effects. Nevertheless, a number of pollutant concerns are emerging, such as replacement flame retardants, pharmaceuticals, and current use pesticides. Characterizing the status, trends and effects of marine pollutants in coastal ecosystem components can provide cost-effective means to guide regulations, source control and/or remediation strategies that will ultimately protect ecosystem health and services.Email your questions to Session 3 Convenors
Email your questions to Session 3 Invited Speakers
Topic Session (1-day)
The changing carbon cycle of North Pacific continental shelves and marginal seas Co-sponsored by SOLAS
Minhan Dai (China) Sophia Johannessen (Canada) Dong-Jin Kang (Korea)
Invited Speakers: Miguel Goni (Oregon State University, USA) Kon-kee Liu (Institute of Hydrological and Oceanic Sciences, National Central University, Chinese-Taipei )
Coastal waters link the atmosphere, the land and the open ocean, both dynamically and biogeochemically. Consequently, the carbon cycle of the continental shelves and marginal seas that ring the North Pacific is particularly complex and prone to rapid changes induced by global climatic and regional anthropogenic forcing. Among others, these drivers include increasing temperature, ocean acidification, eutrophication, and deoxygenation of seawater. Such changes represent a potential for great harm to the ecosystems and fisheries that rely on these highly productive waters. This session invites presentations on ocean acidification, hypoxia, eutrophication and other topics related to the biogeochemistry of organic and inorganic carbon in Pacific continental shelves and marginal seas.
BIO/FIS Topic Session (1-day)
Marine ecosystem services and the contribution from marine ecosystems to the economy and human well-being Co-sponsored by IMBER
Shang Chen (China) Keith Criddle (USA) Ekaterina Golovashchenko (Russia) Mitsutaku Makino (Japan) Jungho Nam (Korea) Minling Pan (USA) Ian Perry (Canada)
Invited Speakers: Leif Anderson (NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, USA) Kai Chan (University of British Columbia, Canada) Shang Chen (First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, PR China)
Dan Lew (NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, USA)
Marine ecosystem services are the benefits people obtain from the sea and ocean. Since the UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment reports were published in 2005, the concept of ecosystem services has been broadly accepted by politicians, scientists, developers and the public. When politicians make policy decisions, they should know the value of the marine ecosystem services involved, and how much economic development and human well-being the marine ecosystem may support. As scientists, we have the responsibility to give the answers or the best estimates to these questions. The goals of this session are to provide scientists with a platform to exchange results from research on marine ecosystem services and to show how they contribute to the economy and human well-being. In turn, these research activities will be a demonstration of the contributions and significance of the work being done on this topic within PICES communities, including marine-related research institutes, universities, and management agencies, to marine science and national economies.
Email your questions to Session 5 Convenors
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S6: BIO/POC/TCODE/MONITOR/FUTURETopic Session (1 ½-day)
Recent trends and future projections of North Pacific climate and ecosystems
Jack Barth (USA)
James Christian (Canada) Enrique Curchitser (USA) Chan Joo Jang (Korea) Angelica Peña (Canada)
Invited Speakers: Jason Holt (National Oceanography Centre, UK) William Merryfield (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada)
The North Pacific Ocean experiences change on a range of timescales, and is among the most difficult regions of the world ocean in which to detect secular climate trends associated with anthropogenic forcing against the background of natural variability. Understanding impacts on ecosystems and the human communities dependent on them requires understanding of the magnitudes of climate variability and change. Sustained observations of past and present states, modeling of future states with global climate models (GCMs), and downscaling of GCM projections to the regional scale are all key components of the scientific effort to understand impacts and inform adaptation efforts. Downscaling efforts are likely to include a variety of methods, both statistical and dynamical, including high-resolution regional ocean circulation models with embedded ecosystem/biogeochemical models, statistical models relating local population statistics to climate forcing or climate indices, and multi-species models forced by temperature or oxygen anomalies from regional or global models. This session invites papers on time-series of observations of the North Pacific Ocean in the context of recent climate variability and change, and future projections of changes including statistical and dynamical downscaling.
S7 is cancelled. Submitted abstracts have been moved to MEQ Paper Session.
Topic Session (1-day)
Science needs for offshore oil and gas development in the North Pacific
Topic Session (1-day)
Ecosystem indicators to characterize ecosystem responses to multiple stressors in North Pacific marine ecosystems
Vladimir Kulik (Russia) Chaolun Li (China) Ian Perry (Canada) Jameal Samhouri (USA)
Peng Sun (China) Motomitsu Takahashi (Japan) Chang-Ik Zhang (Korea)
Invited Speakers: Isabelle Côté (Simon Fraser University, Canada) Yunne-Jai Shin (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), France) Mingyuan Zhu (First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, PR China)
Multiple natural and human stressors on marine ecosystems are common throughout the North Pacific, and may act synergistically to change ecosystem structure, function and dynamics in unexpected ways that can differ from responses to single stressors. These stressors can be expected to vary by region, and over time. Understanding the impacts of multiple stressors, and developing indicators which capture their behaviours and changes, are major challenges for an ecosystem approach to the North Pacific and for the PICES FUTURE project. The objective of this session is to present potential indicators of ecosystem responses to multiple stressors in the North Pacific (with the focus on multiple, rather than single, stressors). One goal of the session is to determine if these proposed ecosystem indicators can provide a mechanistic understanding of how ecosystems respond to multiple stressors. For example, 1) are responses to stressors simply linear or are changes non-linear such that small additional stressors result in much larger ecosystem responses; 2) do different parts of the ecosystem respond differently (e.g., across trophic levels); 3) how do stressors interact and can these interactions be adequately captured by the proposed indicators? Conceptual, empirical and model-based analyses are welcome. The results of this session will contribute to the work of PICES Working Group 28 on Ecosystem indicators for multiple stressors on the North Pacific.
Steven J. Barbeaux (USA) Jennifer Boldt (Canada) Martin Dorn (USA) Jaebong Lee (Korea)
Invited Speakers: Sonia Batten (Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, UK/Canada)
Chris Rooper (NMFS-Alaska Fishery Science Center, USA)
Long-term monitoring is a key component of an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management. Data time series enable the examination of changes in oceanographic and community metrics. In addition to costly ocean monitoring systems with sensor arrays and autonomous vehicles, low cost cooperative monitoring efforts would enhance our understanding of marine ecosystems, as well as help insure their long-term viability. An important consideration for sustainable long-term ocean monitoring is the development of affordable solutions to deploying and retrieving sensors. Sustainable long-term ocean monitoring is successfully being implemented at regional scales with low-cost options as presented in the 2012 PICES Annual Meeting session entitled “Monitoring on a small budget: Cooperative research and the use of commercial and recreational vessels as sampling platforms for biological and oceanographic monitoring“. Researchers from many nations are now working with other ocean going stakeholders such as fishers and mariners to collect oceanographic and fisheries data for little to no deployment and retrieval costs. This session is intended to provide a forum for researchers to present the development and results of cooperative monitoring projects world-wide. The session will also explore the feasibility of developing low-cost and long-term cooperative ocean monitoring networks based on the lessons learned from these projects. When combined with efforts such as the Global Oceans Observing System (GOOS), cooperative ocean monitoring networks will make an important contribution to achieving data-driven ecosystem-based management.
Email your questions to Session 9 Convenors
Email your questions to Session 9 Invited Speakers
S10:FIS/TCODE Topic Session (1-day) Banking on recruitment curves; returns on intellectual investment Co-sponsored by ISC
Anne Hollowed (USA) Skip McKinnell (PICES) Hiroshi Okamura (Japan) Cisco Werner (ISC)
During the first half of the 20th century, one of the fundamental issues in the then nascent discipline of fisheries science was determining how many individuals could be removed from a fish population without affecting its ability to keep producing fish for a fishery. In the 1950s, theoretical solutions to this problem were discovered in mathematical formulations that emerged from the work of Ricker, Beverton, Holt and others. These closed-form solutions led to widespread adoption as electronic computing technology became widely available in fisheries labs in the 1960s. Concepts that emerged from their equations underpin current estimation of biological reference points used to set harvest strategies for many of the world’s fisheries. Spawner-recruitment (S-R) curves serve as the foundation for what of a fish population remains to be conserved. With so much at stake, it is surprising that their application in contemporary fisheries is taken for granted. This session will delve into the good, the bad, and the ugly consequences of using recruitment curves, with an idea of determining whether an intellectual course correction is needed for the next 50 years. This topic session seeks papers that introduce new approaches to modeling the relationship between spawners and recruitment including: (1) incorporating predator prey interactions in S-R models, (2) use of coupled bio-physical models in identifying mechanisms linking spawners and recruitment, (3) consideration of the role of cohort resonance, (4) techniques for incorporating environmental variability into S-R functions, (5) stage-based S-R approaches, (6) comparative studies testing the performance of different methods relative to observations, and (7) decision rules regarding how to utilize knowledge of S-R relationships in formulating harvest advice. Enthusiasm for this topic session will be used to seek publication in a Special Issue in a primary journal.
Michael Dagg (USA) Atsushi Tsuda (Japan)
The Biological Oceanography Committee (BIO) has a wide range of interests spanning from molecular to global scales. BIO targets all organisms living in the marine environment including bacteria, phytoplankton, zooplankton, micronekton, benthos and marine birds and mammals. In this session, we welcome all papers on biological aspects of marine science in the PICES region. Contributions from young scientists are especially encouraged.
Xianshi Jin (China) Elizabeth Logerwell (USA)
This session invites papers addressing general topics in fishery science and fisheries oceanography in the North Pacific and its marginal seas, except those covered by Topic Sessions sponsored by the Fishery Science Committee (FIS). Email your questions to FIS
Paper Session Convenors
Chuanlin Huo (China)
Elizabeth Logerwell (USA)
Olga Lukyanova (Russia)
Darlene Smith (Canada)
Lyman Thorsteinson (USA)
Stanley (Jeep) Rice (retired, NOAA)
Papers are invited on all aspects of marine environmental quality research in the North Pacific and its marginal seas, except those covered by Topic Sessions sponsored by the Marine Environmental Quality Committee (MEQ).
Kyung-Il Chang (Korea) Michael Foreman (Canada)
Papers are invited on all aspects of physical oceanography and climate in the North Pacific and its marginal seas, except those covered by Topic Sessions sponsored by the Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (POC).
Email your questions to POC
Paper Session Convenors
W1: Workshop (1-day)
Comparison of size-based and species based ecosystem models Co-sponsored by ICES
Jeffrey Polovina (USA) Anne Hollowed (USA) Shin-ichi Ito (Japan) Myron Peck (Germany)
Size-based and species-specific ecosystem models are two different approaches to ecosystem modeling, based on different assumptions and designed to address somewhat different questions. In recent years considerable development of size-based models has occurred within the ICES community while the PICES community has typically focused on species-specific models for its applications. The objective of this workshop is to bring together the two communities of modelers to: (1) advance our understanding of the advantages and limitations of these two modeling approaches, especially in the context of modeling climate impacts on ecosystems, (2) make direct comparisons of the predictions of ecosystem structure and dynamics, both top-down and bottom-up, from both these model types applied to the same regional ecosystem, where possible under climate change forcing, and (3) discuss the benefits and feasibility of developing hybrid size-based and species-specific models. The workshop will be structured with a series of talks to kick off discussion on these 3 topics.
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Identifying mechanisms linking physical climate and ecosystem change: Observed indices, hypothesized processes, and "data dreams" for the future Co-sponsored by ICES
Jack Barth (USA)
Emanuele Di Lorenzo (USA) Marc Hufnagl (Germany) Jacquelynne King (Canada) Arthur Miller (USA) Shoshiro Minobe (Japan) Ryan Rykaczewski (USA) Kazuaki Tadokoro (Japan)
Climate variability and change in the ocean is now recognized as a significant driver of marine ecosystem response, from primary production to zooplankton composition, and through the trophic chain to fish, marine mammals and other top predators. Past studies have often relied upon existing datasets to draw correlative conclusions (associated with indices and discovered time-lags in the system) regarding the possible mechanisms that may control these linkages. In this workshop, we seek to identify and model key processes that enable us to succinctly and quantifiably explain the mechanisms underlying the correlative relationships in physical-biological datasets, both in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The description and modeling of these key processes may (a) involve few or several variables (but not full complexity), (b) use dynamical (e.g., eddy-resolving ocean models, NPZ, IBM, etc.) or statistically based methods (e.g., Bayesian, linear inverse models, etc.), (c) explain variability in low or high tropic levels (although we seek to emphasize secondary and higher producers), and (d) include uncertainty estimation. We also solicit ideas and hypotheses concerning new mechanisms of physical-biological linkages that can only be tested by establishing novel long-term observational strategies, where the harvest of understanding will eventually be reaped by future generations of ocean scientists, as well as by developing creative modeling datasets, where ecosystem complexities can be effectively unraveled. The workshop format will be a mixture of talks and group discussions that aim at enriching the exchange of ideas and concepts between physical and biological ocean scientists. The ultimate goal is to deliver: (1) a set of new hypotheses of the mechanisms of marine ecosystem response to climate forcing, and (2) a description of the observational and modeling datasets required to test these hypotheses using process models.
Email your questions to Workshop 2 Convenors
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Marine bird and mammal spatial ecology
Robert Suryan (USA) Rolf Ream (USA) William Sydeman (USA) Yutaka Watanuki (Japan)
Martin Renner (Tern Again Consulting, USA)
Marine birds and mammals (MBMs) are highly mobile, yet relatively easy to observe to define their spatial distributions. They consume large amounts of prey and are susceptible to changes in marine food web structure, productivity, and to a variety of anthropogenic impacts. Therefore, MBMs are highly visible sentinels of ecosystem health and its change. To incorporate these roles and characteristics of MBMs into ecosystem-based management and meet objectives of FUTURE, the PICES MBM Advisory Panel (AP-MBM) has proposed to focus on MBM spatial ecology and conservation from 2012-2014. Over the past several decades, a variety of research programs have collected observations of MBMs throughout the North Pacific using tracking studies and vessel-based surveys. Some of these data have been compiled into large databases, while others remain to be integrated in a more complete coverage of the PICES region. The workshop will devise a strategy to compile, integrate, and analyze these various data sets. Specifically, the workshop will determine the analytical approaches to integrate datasets, methods to spatially interpolate data, environmental data to include in spatial modeling, and spatial selection criteria to conduct regional analyses. Regional case studies will be used to test applications and resolve data integration issues. Workshop invitees and participants will include data holders and spatial analysis experts. Once data are compiled and integrated, the overall objectives will be to: (1) synthesize distribution data of MBMs and assess changes over time; (2) examine physical and biological factors that correspond to high use “hot spots”; (3) map and provide information on important ecological areas in the PICES regions. This workshop is an important first step to compiling and integrating these massive datasets. Results of the workshop and subsequent activities will be published as a PICES scientific report at the end of AP-MBM 3-year focus period.
Email your questions to Workshop 3 Convenors
Email your questions to Workshop 3 Invited Speaker
W4:TCODE Workshop (1-day) - CANCELLED Tools, approaches and challenges for accessing and integrating distributed datasets Co-sponsored by IODE
Most of PICES’ data sharing activities have been on the server side: gathering and standardizing metadata and developing a web portal based on GeoNetwork software. These tools aim to provide web browser access to data. The tools are useful because distributed data require the efficiencies of machine to machine access to data that are distributed across multiple sites. However, users may prefer to access data using their particular client of choice. It may be a browser, but it might also include anything from shell scripts to python or java programs to application extensions or libraries that allow direct access to the data from within the user's favourite application. This workshop will examine new and existing client-side solutions that are working to make the use of distributed data services simple and invisible to the user. Live demonstrations are encouraged.
Email your questions to Workshop 4 Convenors
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W5 is cancelled. Evaluating tools for assessment of species vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change
W6:MEQ Workshop (½-day)
Economic Impacts of harmful algal blooms on fisheries and aquaculture
Chang-Hoon Kim (Korea) Vera Trainer (USA)
Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have adverse economic and social impacts on the aquaculture industry, human health, coastal economies, and wild fisheries. HABs have prompted routine closures of both commercial and recreational shellfish harvesting as well as contributing to the death of aquaculture finfish resulting in financial losses in coastal communities. But the economic impacts generated by these events extend far beyond the industry itself. Obtaining more realistic estimates of HAB economic impacts, and the costs of preventing and managing them, calls for an integrated assessment approach that comprises the following: the economic impact of HABs on the aquaculture industry, the secondary integrated industries, and consumers, on both local and regional scales; some valuation of the costs and benefits of taking any recognized steps to lessen the HAB problem (e.g., reducing coastal pollution and other human-related activities); and weighing the costs and benefits of enhanced monitoring and surveillance that potentially reduces the magnitude of the impacts (e.g., by limiting shellfish harvesting closure windows or alteration in the timing of finfish harvesting). This workshop comprises 2 parts, with the first being a presentation of what is known about the economic and social impacts of HABs in the eastern and western Pacific, by both HAB researchers and invited speakers who can inform on cutting edge approaches and methodologies for assessment of HAB and other marine economic impacts (e.g., oil spills). In Part 2 participants will identify specific steps for developing improved and more comprehensive economic impact assessments of HABs on fisheries and aquaculture in the North Pacific. Email your questions to Workshop 6 Convenors
Email your questions to Workshop 6 Invited Speakers
W7:MEQ Workshop(1-day) and field trip
Traditional seafoods of coastal aboriginal communities in the North Pacific: Insight into food, social and ceremonial uses at Snuneymux’w First Nation in Nanaimo, British Columbia
Peter Ross (Canada) and local community members
Seafoods are integral part of the nutritional, social and cultural fabric of many aboriginal communities inhabiting coastal regions of the North Pacific Ocean. The Snuneymux’w First Nation in Nanaimo, BC, is home to 1,200 residents who have relied heavily on seafoods for thousands of years. Despite now living in an urban environment with ready access to supermarket foods, it has been recently estimated that the average individual from this aboriginal community consumes 12 to 15 times as much seafood as the average Canadian. Much of this is harvested locally by native fishers. Community members routinely express concerns about the quality and quantity of their local seafoods. It is becoming increasingly evident that the availability of nutritious and uncontaminated seafoods is important for food, social and ceremonial purposes in this other coastal communities in BC. This workshop will bring together local members of the Snuneymux’w First Nation and PICES participants, and provide an invaluable opportunity for sharing, learning and teaching about the importance of traditional seafoods to this aboriginal community. The workshop will involve discussions on science and traditional ecological knowledge.
This workshop is open to any participant attending the 2013 PICES Annual Meeting, but a maximum capacity is set at 45 persons. The workshop will be of interest to persons working on issues of marine stewardship, marine resource management, seafoods, and local cultures. Local practices, culture and traditions of First Nations will be showcased at this workshop, with additional input from resource persons from other communities. The workshop will feature:
cultural welcome and prayer from representative of the Chief-in-Council, Snuneymux’w First Nation;
song and drum opening from local community members;
teachings from local community elders on marine resource management and sustainable harvesting;
discussions on the role of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) in a science-driven world (a panel of elders and scientists will be invited to prepare 4 x 15 minute talks, followed by discussions);
a tour of the local seashore south of Nanaimo where practical demonstrations will take place on techniques to harvest seaweeds, shellfish and other seafoods;
preparation of lunch foods using traditional aboriginal cooking techniques including a pit-cook and bentwood box; lunch and snacks comprising locally and seasonally-available foods as prawns, oysters, sea urchins, salmon, halibut, and a variety of crops and plants.
The workshop is open to any participant of PICES-2013, but a maximum capacity is set at 45 persons. It is expected that approximately 1/3 of the day will be indoors at the Vancouver Island University First Nations Shq’aqpthut (‘Gathering Place’; http://www.viu.ca/gatheringplace/gallery.aspx), and 2/3 outdoors (shoreline and cooking area). Participants should bring suitable walking/hiking shoes, warm clothing and raingear to prepare for seasonal weather in coastal temperate British Columbia (16ºC, with possible rain). Email your questions to Workshop 7 Convenors
Email your questions to Workshop 7 Invited Speaker
Posters of general interest to the PICES Scientific and Technical Committees, including those not necessarily matching the themes of the Topic Sessions, are welcome. Posters will be on display from October 15 (a.m.) until the end of the “Wine and Cheese” Poster Session on the evening of October 17, when poster presenters are expected to be available to answer questions.
The size of a poster TBA.
Please add your photograph to the right upper corner
of your poster.