S1: Science
Board Symposium (Oct.
27)
Beyond observations to achieving understanding and forecasting
in a changing North Pacific: Forward to the FUTURE
Co-Convenors:
John E. Stein (SB), Michael J. Dagg (BIO), Gordon H. Kruse (FIS),
Glen Jamieson (MEQ), Hiroya Sugisaki (MONITOR), Michael G. Foreman
(POC), Bernard A. Megrey (TCODE), Harold P. Batchelder (CCCC), Michio
J. Kishi (CCCC), Fangli Qiao (China), Sinjae Yoo (Korea) and Mikhail
Stepanenko (Russia)
Invited speakers:
Icarus Allen (Plymouth Marine Laboratory,
UK)
Lawrence C. Hamilton (University of New Hampshire,
USA)
Paul J. Harrison (Hong Kong University of
Science and Technology, Hong Kong)
Hiroaki Saito (Tohoku National Fisheries Research
Institute, Japan)
George Sugihara (Scripps Institution of Oceanography,
UCSD, USA)
Eitaro Wada (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
Science and Technology)
FUTURE (Forecasting and Understanding Trends,
Uncertainty and Responses of North Pacific Marine Ecosystems), the
new Science Program undertaken by PICES member countries, has the
broad goals of: (1) understanding the responses of marine ecosystems
in the North Pacific to climate change and human activities at basin-wide
and regional scales; (2) providing forecasts of what might be expected
based on a current understanding of how nature works; and (3) communicating
this information effectively to its members and to society in general.
Past advances in understanding marine ecosystems in the North Pacific
have been largely based either on the direct analysis of observations,
or on the development of conceptual and numerical models that help
to describe the processes underlying the observations. Though these
activities will continue to play an important role in FUTURE, the
provision of forecasts and estimates of their associated uncertainties
necessitates moving beyond observationally based understanding,
so that ecosystem responses to natural and anthropogenic changes
can be anticipated and communicated effectively to society. Presentations
are invited to address the goals of FUTURE and the three key research
questions that it identifies:
- How do ecosystems respond to natural and anthropogenic forcing,
and how might they change in the future?
- What determines an ecosystem's intrinsic resilience and vulnerability
to natural and anthropogenic forcing?
- How do human activities affect coastal ecosystems and how are
societies affected by changes in these ecosystems?
Presentations addressing other components of FUTURE such as: (1) communicating
scientific information to governments, policy makers, and society
at large and (2) forging partnerships with social scientists, are
also welcome. Email your questions
to