FUTURE Scientific Program: Forecasting and Understanding Trends, Uncertainty
and Responses of North Pacific Marine Ecosystems
(Oct. 2009 - )
Research
Themes and Implementation Objectives
FUTURE is organized around three research themes that are best
characterized as key questions:
(1)
What determines an ecosystem’s intrinsic
resilience and vulnerability to natural and anthropogenic forcing?
(2)
How do ecosystems respond to natural and anthropogenic forcing,
and how might they change in the future?
(3)
How do human activities affect coastal ecosystems and how
are societies affected by changes in these ecosystems?
Each of the key questions has a list of more specific questions
that define an approach to address a research theme (see pp. 3-4
in the FUTURE
Science Plan).
The ultimate goal of FUTURE is to understand and communicate
the future of North Pacific ecosystems and the potential impacts
from human use. Implementation of FUTURE has two objectives
(see p. 3 in the FUTURE
Implementation Plan):
(1)
To increase understanding of climatic and anthropogenic
impacts and consequences on marine ecosystems, with continued
leadership at the frontiers of marine science;
(2)
To develop activities that include the interpretation, clarity
of presentation, peer review, dissemination, and evaluation
of ecosystem products (e.g., status reports, outlooks, forecasts)
and establish a process for engaging interested institutions
and other recipients.
To address the FUTURE goal, there is growing awareness that variability
in marine ecosystems is neither simple nor linear either within
or across scales, with consequences from ecological disasters to
unexpected benefits. Impacts can have a mixture of local, regional,
basin and global-scale causes.
Organizational
Structure
Scientific Steering Committee:
The PICES Science Board (SB),
with the addition of the three FUTURE Advisory Panel Chairmen (AICE-AP,
COVE-AP, SOFE-AP),
serves as the Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) of FUTURE. The
Science Board is responsible for initiating FUTURE activities by
working through the Scientific and Technical Committees and their
expert groups, and evaluating progress toward the FUTURE goal.
Advisory Panels:
Three FUTURE Advisory Panels (AICE-AP, COVE-AP, SOFE-AP) provide
continuing direction, leadership, coordination, and synthesis within
PICES toward attaining the FUTURE goal. They recommend activities
to be undertaken by existing expert groups, recommend new FUTURE
products and, in coordination with Scientific and Technical Committees,
suggest and help to develop new expert groups.
Publications
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