Climate Change Effects - A1 Presentations- PICES

Co-Convenors: Thomas Okey (Pew Fellow / UVic / Bamfield Marine Station, Canada) Akihiko Yatsu (Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)

Assessing effects of climate change on marine ecosystems (i.e., biological communities) is a major challenge, mainly because (1) future changes in physical forcing, such as water temperature, will exceed historically observed values, and (2) biological responses or adaptations to these changes are highly uncertain, particularly over a long time period. Changes in geographic ranges, vertical distributions, phenologies, population structures, and productivities will differ among individual species thereby altering the connectivities and functions of ecosystem components, including predator-prey relationships and competition, species assembly, community structure, biodiversity, energy flow, and carrying capacity. This session will focus on retrospective analyses of changes in freshwater, coastal, and offshore ecosystems/communities, experimental studies on species interactions under climate-change-related conditions, and conceptual and numerical modelling of ecosystems relevant to climate change.

Tuesday, April 27 (9:00-18:30)

9:05	Jeffrey J. Polovina, John P. Dunne, Phoebe Woodworth and Evan A. Howell (Invited) Possible trends in North Pacific ecosystems over the 21st century based on output from a coupled climate, biogeochemical, and phytoplankton model (B1-6053) (pdf, 0.9 Mb)

9:30	Hiroshi Sumata, Taketo Hashioka, Takeshi Okunishi, Masahito Shigemitsu, Maki N. Aita, Naoki Yoshie, Naosuke Okada, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Tatsuo Suzuki and Yasuhiro Yamanaka Effects of climate forcing on the North Pacific Ocean ecosystem simulated using an eddy-permitting marine ecosystem model (B1-6167) (waiting for permission)

9:45	Jeffrey M. Napp, George L. Hunt, Jr., Lisa B. Eisner, Edward W. Farley, Phyllis J. Stabeno, Alex Andrews and Atsushi Yamaguchi The response of eastern Bering Sea zooplankton communities to climate fluctuations: Community structure, biodiversity, and energy flow to higher trophic levels (B1-6049) (waiting for permission)

10:00	Hung-Yen Hsieh, Wen-Tseng Lo, Long-Jing Wu, Huang-Pin Chien, Deng-Cheng Liu and Wei-Cheng Su Larval fish assemblages in the waters around Taiwan, western North Pacific: A comparison between, during and after the northeasterly monsoon (B1-6168) (waiting for permission)

10:15	Nadezhda L. Aseeva and Alexander L. Figurkin Changes of bottom ichthyocenosis structure on the shelf of west Kamchatka under changing environments in the last two decades (B1-6235) (pdf, 0.5 Mb)

10:30	Rebecca G. Asch and David M. Checkley, Jr. Climate change leads to earlier seasonal occurrence of larval fishes in the southern California Current (B1-6216) Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

11:05	William J. Sydeman, Bryan A. Black, Steven J. Bograd, Jeff Dorman, John C. Field, Kyra L. Mills, Stephen Ralston, T. Zack Powell, Jarrod A. Santora, Isaac D. Schroeder, Sarah Ann Thompson and Franklin B. Schwing Ocean climate change and phenology: Effects on trophic synchrony and consequences to fish and seabirds in the northern-central California Current (B1-6220) (pdf, 0.8 Mb)

11:20	Takafumi Hirata, Robert Brewin and Nick Hardman-Mountford Global distribution of phytoplankton functional types estimated from satellite ocean colour (B1-6042) (pdf, 1.9 Mb)

11:50	Gregory N. Nishihara and Ryuta Terada A preliminary study of the effects of a wave exposure gradient on the species richness of marine macrophytes along the eastern rim of the East China Sea (B1-6279) Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

12:05	Sukgeun Jung, Young Shil Kang, Young-Sang Suh, Sukyung Kang and Yeong Gong Climate-driven shifts in marine fish communities indicated by commercial catch statistics from Korean coastal waters (B1-6253) (pdf, 2.2 Mb)

12:20	Hiroya Sugisaki, Kiyotaka Hidaka, Tadafumi Ichikawa, Yutaka Hiroe, Yuichi Hirota, Kenji Morinaga, Manabu Shimizu, Takahisa Tokunaga, Mikiko Kuriyama, Tomowo Watanabe and Kaoru Nakata Interdisciplinary monitoring for the Kuroshio warm current ecosystem in relation to climate change (B1-6329) (pdf, 1.1 Mb)

12:35	Hiroaki Saito, Shin-ichi Ito, Atsushi Kawabata, Mitsutaku Makino, Masami Nonaka, Takeshi Okunishi, Kazutaka Takahashi and Ichiro Yasuda Understanding and forecasting of fish species alternation in the Kuroshio-Oyashio ecosystem: The SUPRFISH programme (B1-6101) Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

14:30	Elizabeth A. Fulton (Invited) Interesting times (B1-6044) (pdf, 1.5 Mb)

14:55	Rosamma Stephen Decline in mackerel fishery along west coast of India and its relation to the diminishing density of an abundant upwelling copepod: A multi-decadal study (B1-6164) (pdf, 1.2 Mb)

15:10	Sunil D. Ahirrao Effect of climate change on fish and fisheries of Marathwada region of Maharashtra state (India) (B1-6336) (waiting for permission)

15:25	Stephen D. Simpson, Mark P. Johnson, David W. Sims, Pieter-Jan Schön, Julia L. Blanchard, Simon Jennings and Martin J. Genner Long-term climate-driven changes in UK marine fish communities (B1-6056) Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

15:40	Remment ter Hofstede, Jan Geert Hiddink and Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp Global warming changes the species richness of marine fish in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean (B1-6078) (pdf, 0.7 Mb)

15:55	Gabriel Reygondeau, Olivier Maury, Hervé Demarcq and Philippe Cury Changes in the environmental factors controlling the global biogeography of tuna and billfish communities (B1-6305) (pdf, 1.2 Mb)

16:30	Charles A. Stock and John P. Dunne Modeling global patterns in the transfer of energy between primary producers and mesozooplankton in a global circulation model (B1-6366) (pdf, 0.7 Mb)

16:45	Ryan R. Rykaczewski and John P. Dunne Comparison of the ecosystem response to climate change in the mid-latitude North Pacific and California Current ecosystems (B1-6363) (pdf, 1.3 Mb)

17:00	Evan A. Howell, John P. Dunne and Jeffrey J. Polovina Modeling the central North Pacific ecosystem response to predicted climate variations and fishery management scenarios (B1-6061) (pdf, 0.9 Mb)

17:15	William L. Cheung, Thomas A. Okey and Richard D. Brodeur Projecting future change in pelagic nekton communities along the west coast of North America (B1-6276) (pdf, 1.9 Mb)

17:30	Matthew T. Wilson, Christina M. Jump and Andre Buchheister Ecology of small neritic fishes in the western Gulf of Alaska: Top-down mechanisms can moderate bottom-up forcing (B1-6081) (pdf, 1.6 Mb)

17:45	Philip L. Munday, Danielle L. Dixson, Mark I. McCormick and Mark Meekan Ocean acidification threatens the replenishment of reef fish populations (B1-6130) Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

18:00	Nicholas Graham, Pascale Chabanet, Richard Evans, Simon Jennings, Yves Letourneur, M. Aaron MacNeil, Tim McClanahan, Marcus Öhman, Nicholas Polunin and Charles Sheppard Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes in response to climate change and fisheries exploitation (B1-6095) Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

18:15	Nam-Il Won, Tomohiko Kawamura, Hideki Takami, Hiroshi Hoshikawa and Yoshiro Watanabe Comparison of benthic community structure in natural habitats of abalone Haliotis discus hannai affected by different current systems (B1-6328) Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation