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POC/FUTURE Topic Session
Outlooks and forecasts of marine ecosystems from an earth system science
perspective: Challenges and opportunities
Co-Sponsored by IMBER
Co-Convenors:
Harold P. Batchelder (U.S.A.), Michael Foreman (Canada), Anne
B. Hollowed (U.S.A.) and Hiroaki Saito (Japan)
The prediction of responses of marine
ecosystems to future climate scenarios is an important objective
of PICES’ new science program, FUTURE (Forecasting
and Understanding Trends,
Uncertainty and Responses
of North Pacific Marine Ecosystems).
However, the marine ecosystem is part of the earth system
and its prediction needs integrated knowledge from physical,
chemical, and biological perspectives. Earth system science
is an interdisciplinary approach that integrates anthropology,
atmospheric science, biology, oceanography, geophysics and
policy to provide predictions of ecosystem response to climate
change. The earth system is complex with non-linear feedbacks,
threshold responses, and, in some cases, irreversible change.
Understanding the mechanisms controlling these system properties
is critical to accurately forecasting future states of nature
in a changing climate. Moreover, conducting large-scale experiments
on the earth system is impossible. Therefore, regional marine
ecosystem models should include the earth system science links
that are essential for producing better predictions of marine
ecosystem response to future climate scenarios. This session
will focus on multi-disciplinary coupled models and theoretical,
observational and experimental studies designed to provide
outlooks and/or forecasts of marine ecosystems. Outlooks and
forecasts differ in that outlooks are qualitative with (often)
unbounded uncertainties, while forecasts are often quantitative,
but must have bounded certainties. Presentations that focus
on both long-term and short-term predictions, and that link
two or more disciplines (such as physical oceanography, climate,
ecosystem dynamics, marine resource management, or socio-economic
systems) are welcome. Presentations that explore what additional
information or data are needed to provide outlooks and forecasts,
and especially to transition from providing outlooks to providing
forecasts are desired.
October 28, 2009
Day 1
Takeshi Okunishi,
Shin-ichi Ito, Atsushi Kawabata, Hiroshi Kubota, Taketo Hashioka, Hiroshi
Sumata and Yasuhiro Yamanaka(Invited)
A multi-trophic level ecosystem model for understanding mechanisms of
small pelagic fish species alternation (S9-5745)
Fei Chai,
Francisco Chavez, Yi Chao, Lei Shi, Hongchun Zhang and Richard Barber
Using remote sensing and modeling in operational forecasting of fisheries
(S9-5934)
Keiji Kiyomatsu,
Takuji Waseda and Yasumasa Miyazawa
Reconstruction of high-resolution historical February SST in the northwestern
Pacific and its application to larval dispersion (S9-5898)
Yury I. Zuenko
How trends, shifts, and interdecadal fluctuations in climate reconstruct
the ecosystem of the Japan/East Sea (S9-5549)
Raghu Murtugudde
(Invited)
Marine ecosystem forecasting with an Earth System Prediction model (S9-5980)
V.S. Labay
Evolution of a benthos of coastal lagoons of Sakhalin Island: Causes and
consequences (S9-5958)
Yumiko Yara,
Masahiko Fujii, Yasuhiro Yamanaka,
Naosuke Okada, Hiroya Yamano and Kazuhiro Oshima
Projected effects of global warming on coral reefs in seas close to Japan
(S9-5798)
Hiroaki Saito
Modeling of organic matter dynamics in the mesopelagic zone: A perspective
on modeling and ecosystem studies (S9-5692)
Enrique N.
Curchitser, Kenneth A. Rose,
Kate Hedstrom, Jerome Fiechter, Shin-ichi Ito, Salvador Lluch-Cota and
Bernard A. Megrey
Development of a climate-to-fish-to-fishers model: Progress, issues, and
some solutions (S9-5979)
October 28, 2009
Day 2
Manuel Barange,
Icarus Allen, Eddie Allison, Marie-Caroline Badjeck, Julia Blanchard,
James Harle, Robert Holmes, Jason Holt, Simon Jennings, Gorka Merino,
Christian Mullon and Emma Tompkins (Invited)
Predicting the impacts and socio-economic consequences of climate change
on global marine ecosystems and fisheries: The QUEST_Fish framework (S9-5834)
Anne B. Hollowed,
Nicholas A. Bond, James E. Overland and Thomas Wilderbuer
Future conditions in the Bering Sea: Applications to walleye pollock and
flatfish (S9-5973)
Akihiko Yatsu,
Sanae Chiba, Yasuhiro Yamanaka, Shin-ichi Ito, Yugo Shimizu, Masahide
Kaeriyama and Yoshiro Watanabe
Future of Kuroshio/Oyashio ecosystems: An outcome of the CFAME Task Team
and WG20
(S9-5600)
(pdf,
0.8 Mb)
Michael Dalton
(Invited)
Climate change and marine ecosystems: Demographic and economic implications
under IPCC scenarios (S9-5994)
Harold P. Batchelder,
Enrique N. Curchitser and Kate Hedstrom
Modeling physical processes in the Northeast Pacific: model-data comparisons
for assessing when model skill is sufficient as a basis for ecosystem
simulation (S9-5969)
Jie Shi,
Hao Wei and Liang Zhao
Numerical study of the aquaculture carrying capacity in a typical raft
culture bay of China (S9-5787)
Hernan Garcia,
Sydney Levitus, Tim Boyer, Ricardo Locarnini, John Antonov, Daphne Johnson,
Olga Baranova, Alexey Mishonov, Dan Seidov, Igor Smolyar, Melisa Zweng
and Evgeney Yarosh
The World Ocean Database and Atlas 2009 (S9-6005)
(pdf,
2.3 Mb)
Steven J. Bograd,
Bryan A. Black, William J. Sydeman, Isaac Schroeder and Peter Lawson
Wintertime ocean conditions synchronize rockfish growth and seabird reproduction
in the California Current (S9-5889)
(pdf,
2.1 Mb)
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