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Session 8. FIS/POC/BIO Topic Session
Impact of climate variability on marine ecosystems: Understanding functional responses to facilitate forecasting
Co-sponsored by ICES

Co-Convenors: Jürgen Alheit (Germany), Suam Kim (Korea), Harald Loeng (Norway), James Overland (U.S.A.) and Yasunori Sakurai (Japan)

Understanding the role of natural variability, occurring over a variety of temporal and spatial scales is essential for effective management of marine ecosystems in the wake of predicted global change. Evidence suggests that climate variability can trigger regime shifts in marine ecosystems. Regime shifts are characterized by a re-organization of marine communities, species dominance, and tropho-dynamic relationships. Often, synchronous shifts occur in aquatic ecosystems that are separated by thousands of kilometers. This finding suggests that atmospheric teleconnections are mediating regional system changes. We postulate that comparative studies of ecosystems that have experienced regime shifts will provide insights into the expected responses of marine organisms to climate change. Papers are invited that go beyond simple pattern matching. The primary focus will be on understanding shifts in the pelagic realm, including phytoplankton, zooplankton, small pelagic fishes, gadids, and squids. Preference will be given to research that provides evidence of the functional responses and relationships that underlie regime shifts, and to statistical or modeling studies that successfully simulate observed shifts.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Hans O. Pörtner (Invited)
Oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLT): Linking climate to ecosystem change
(waiting for permission)


Julie E. Keister, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Sanae Chiba, Vincent Combes, Cheryl A. Morgan and William T. Peterson
Climate-related changes in ocean transport control zooplankton biogeography around the North Pacific basin (S8-6686)
(pdf, 1.5 Mb)


Yury Zuenko, Ludmila Chernoivanova, Alexander Vdovin and Elena I. Ustinova
Saffron cod fluctuations in the Japan Sea: An evidence of match/mismatch hypothesis (S8-6816)
(pdf, 0.7 Mb)


William R. Crawford and James R. Irvine
Climate variability and ecosystem response in Pacific Canadian coastal waters (S8-6778)
(permission to post denied, contact presenter)


Kazuaki Tadokoro, Yuji Okazaki, Tsuneo Ono and Hiroya Sugisaki (Invited)
Geographical comparison of the decadal-scale variations in marine ecosystems in the North Pacific Ocean (S8-6611)
(pdf, 1.7 Mb)


Ken Drinkwater, Glen Harrison, Erica Head, Padmini Dalpadado, Jim Carscadden and George Lilly
Comparison of the ecosystem responses to climate forcing and fishing between the Labrador Sea and the Norwegian/Barents seas (S8-6753)
(pdf, 1.6 Mb)

Jürgen Alheit, Michele Casini, Wulff Greve, Thomas Pohlmann, Anne Sell, Ralf Vorberg and Carola Wagner
Climate variability drives anchovies and sardines into North and Baltic Seas (S8-6844)
(waiting for permission)
Joachim P. Gröger, Gordon H. Kruse and Norbert Rohlf
Climate cycles and population dynamics of North Sea herring (S8-6427)
(pdf, 2.4 Mb)
Anne B. Hollowed, Steven Barbeaux, Ned Cokelet, Stan Kotwicki, Patrick Ressler and Christopher Wilson
Effects of climate change on pelagic ocean habitats and their potential role in structuring Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska ecosystems (S8-6841)
(waiting for permission)
Shin-ichi Ito, Takeshi Okunishi, Atsushi Kawabata, Hiroshi Kubota, Akinori Takasuka, Taketo Hashioka, Hiroshi Sumata and Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Invited)
Multi-trophic level ecosystem modeling for understanding the mechanism of small pelagic fish species alternation associated with climate regime shifts (S8-6661)
(pdf, 2.9 Mb)
Richard D. Brodeur, James J. Ruzicka and John H. Steele
Investigating alternate trophic pathways through gelatinous zooplankton, krill, and planktivorous fishes in an upwelling ecosystem using end-to-end models (S8-6641)
(permission to post denied, contact presenter)
William J. Sydeman, Jarrod A. Santora, Sarah Ann Thompson, Kyra L. Mills, John C. Field, Brian K. Wells, Baldo Marinovic and Bryan A. Black
Numerical responses of krill predators to variation in krill abundance and spatial organization (S8-6790)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)
Seokjin Yoon, Hiroya Abe and Michio J. Kishi
Variance estimation of the growth and food sources of the Manila clam by global warming in a subarctic lagoon, Japan (S8-6822)
(waiting for permission)
Harald Loeng
Impacts of climate change on the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas (S8-6600)
(pdf, 2.5 Mb)
Franz J. Mueter (Invited)
Long-term forecasts of walleye pollock dynamics in the eastern Bering Sea based on estimated responses of recruitment and growth to climate variability (S8-6805)
(pdf, 0.5 Mb)
Oleg Bulatov
Climate fluctuations and walleye pollock biomass dynamics (S8-6444)
(pdf, 2.3 Mb)
Bryan A. Black, Isaac D. Schroeder, William J. Sydeman, Steven J. Bograd and Brian K. Wells
Winter and summer upwelling modes and their biological relevance in the California Current Ecosystem (S8-6541)
(pdf, 3 Mb)
Masahide Kaeriyama, Hideaki Kudo, Hideki Kaeriyama and Katherine W. Myers
Spacio-temporal changes in the feeding pattern of Pacific salmon, Oncorhynchus spp., in the North Pacific Ocean ecosystems during 1958–2009 (S8-6526)
(pdf, 1 Mb)
Melissa A. Haltuch and André E. Punt
On the promises and pitfalls of including decadal-scale climate forcing of recruitment in demersal fish stock assessment (S8-6572)
(pdf, 0.6 Mb)
Yongjun Tian, Hideaki Kidokoro and Tsuneo Goto
Long-term changes in the condition factor of small pelagic fishes in the Japan Sea and the impact of the late 1980s regime shift (S8-6500)
(pdf, 0.5 Mb)
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