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Session
9. How well do our models really work and what data do we need to
check and improve them?
Co-Convenors: Jack Barth (U.S.A.), Dake Chen (China), Michael Foreman (Canada), Phillip Mundy (U.S.A.),
Young-Jae Ro (Korea) and Sei-Ichi Saitoh (Japan)
Invited Speaker:
Nikolay Diansky (Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russia)
Yoichi Ishikwa (Kyoto University, Japan)
Alexander Kurapov (Oregon State University, U.S.A.)
Shoshiro Minobe (Hokkaido University, Japan)
Kenneth Rose (Louisiana State University, U.S.A.)
Given the importance of models to FUTURE, it is crucial to examine their skill and utility through comparison
with data. Models are being used to study and forecast physical (atmospheric and oceanic circulation and mixing),
chemical (air-sea fluxes, dissolved oxygen), biological (primary production, trophic dynamics) and fisheries
(individual based modeling, migration pathways) processes. Climate forcing and coupling between processes is
of prime importance. Presentations are invited over the range of modeling scales, from local to global, and from
hours to decades. Contributions are also welcome identifying data sets that we currently have that are helpful for
assessing model skill and what new data sets are needed and might be obtained through ocean observing efforts.
Discussions of uncertainty in model predictions and ways to reduce that uncertainty are also invited.
Day 1, Wednesday, October 19
Nikolay A. Diansky and Vladimir Zalesny
Numerical simulation of the large-scale ocean circulation with a multi-component splitting
method (Invited) (pdf, 1.6 Mb)
Alexander Kurapov
Oregon coastal ocean data assimilation system: Model performance and assimilated data
assessment (Invited)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)
Bunmei Taguchi, Hisashi Nakamura, Masami Nonaka, Nobumasa Komori, Akira
Kuwano-Yoshida, Koutarou Takaya and Atsushi Goto
Seasonal evolutions of atmospheric response to decadal SST anomalies in the North Pacific
subarctic frontal zone: Observations and a coupled model simulation
(pdf, 10.6 Mb)
John A. Barth, Sangil Kim, Christopher A. Edwards and Patrick T. Drake
To where the currents flow - Larval dispersal and connectivity along the U.S. West Coast
(pdf, 0.6 Mb)
Kenneth A. Rose
Combining hydrodynamic, NPZ, and fish models into climate-physics-fish-fisher models:
Can the biology and people keep up with the computers? (Invited)
(pdf, 1.5 Mb)
Angelica Peña and Diane Masson
Modelling lower trophic level ecosystem dynamics in the Strait of Georgia
(pdf, 1.7 Mb)
Youngjae Ro, Kwangyoung Jung and Baekjin Kim
Ecosystem monitoring/modeling project in the Chunsu Bay, Yellow Sea, Korea
Xiangnan Wang, Changlei Ma, Songtang Liu, Jianjun Shi, Rui Zhu and Chuan Tian
Development and application of marine ecological and environmental monitoring system in
the Yellow Sea and Polar region
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)
Jerome Fiechter, Jeremiah Brown, Williams Leeds, Radu Herbei, Ralph Milliff,
Christopher Wikle, Andrew Moore, Thomas Powell and Mevin Hooten
Parameter uncertainty in marine ecosystem models: What can we learn from ensemble
calculations and Bayesian models?
(pdf, 1.5 Mb)
Day 2, Thursday, October 20
Shoshiro Minobe and Utaka Hosoya
Regional secular trends in a new global gridded phosphate and oxygen dataset (Invited)
MONITOR COMMITTEE BEST
PRESENTATION AWARD Naoki Yoshie, Xinyu Guo, Naoki Fujii and Tomohiro Komorita Phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics in the western Seto Inland Sea, Japan based on
observation and a modified NEMURO model
(pdf, 1.7 Mb)
James R. Christian
Effects of natural variability on biogeochemical processes in climate models
(pdf, 3 Mb)
Takashi Mochizuki, Masahide Kimoto, Masayoshi Ishii, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Hiroaki
Tatebe, Yoshiki Komuro, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Masahiro Watanabe and Masato Mori
Decadal prediction using recent series of MIROC global climate model
(pdf, 0.8 Mb)
Yoichi Ishikawa, Toshiyuki Awaji, Masafumi Kamachi, Shuhei Masuda, Hiromichi
Igarashi, Yoshihisa Hiyoshi, Yuji Sasaki, Shiro Nishikawa, Toshimasa Doi, Nozomi
Sugiura, Norihisa Usui, Yosuke Fujii, Takahiro Toyoda, Sei-Ichi Saitoh, Mitso Sakai,
Yoshiki Kato and Shin-ichi Sato
Forecasting ocean circulation and fishery-resource variabilities for operational use (Invited)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)
Mohamed Rawidean MohdKassim
Fish Forecasting System using Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll satellite images: A
statistical model approach
Michael Foreman, Kyle Garver, Dario Stucchi, Ming Guo and Darren Tuele
Uncertainties in modeling water-borne disease transmission among salmon farms in the
Discovery Islands, British Columbia
(pdf, 1 Mb)
Xiutang Yuan, Zhifeng Zhang, Chuanlin Huo and Gengchen Han
Environmental monitoring and assessment of mariculture zones in China: Status and prospects
V.F. Mishukov, V.V. Kalinchuk, V.V. Plotnikov and A.V. Voytsytskiy
Using satellite images for testing simulation models of contaminant transport in the Peter the
Great Bay of the Sea of Japan
(pdf, 1.4 Mb)
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