W3: CCCC Workshop (2 days)
Linking open ocean and coastal ecosystems II
Co-Convenors: Kerim Aydin (U.S.A.), Shin-ichi Ito (Japan), Jin-Yeong Kim (Korea), Gordon A. McFarlane (Canada) and Akihiko Yatsu (Japan)
This workshop will continue ongoing international collaborative research efforts to explore specific food web modeling approaches to link climate with coastal and oceanic biological production. Specifically, climate events may propagate through trophic levels with variable effects at each level, such that coherent patterns that exist may not be detectable across all regions without further modeling synthesis. To date, models of lower trophic levels (NEMURO), forage species (NEMURO.FISH) and upper trophic levels (ECOPATH/ECOSIM), have been constructed of multiple regions of the North Pacific to examine coastal and oceanic regions with a common set of modeling tools. The next step is to compare and to evaluate these and complementary methods (such as Individual Based Models) in a Pacific-wide synthesis. The workshop will consist of three components:
- A critical evaluation of regional and basin-wide trophic models with a focus on the recent results of the BASS, MODEL and REX Task Teams. The development of complementary and comparable approaches to: (a) modeling connections between climate and ecosystems, lower and upper trophic levels, and coastal and oceanic regions; and (b) incorporating seasonal dynamics. Discussion shall include the identification of key data requirements for North Pacific scale production modeling and forecasts.
- As a specific example, the examination of climate-driven processes underlying changes in the distribution (expansion and contraction) of Pacific sardines, especially with respect to transitions between coastal and oceanic (gyre) ecosystems. What are the future expectations of sardine productivity and distribution under various climate change scenarios?
- Synthesis of PICES activities to date that are applicable to BASS/REX studies, particularly Pacific-wide climate influence on ecosystems and marine resource productivity. Identification of the major issues and gaps in knowledge relating to the understanding of changes in ecosystems under a changing environment. Recommend solutions, particularly identifying fieldwork required to fill in the gaps in knowledge and to improve predictive ability.
Invited speakers: