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  Scientific Program

S1: Role of advection and mixing in ocean biogeochemistry and marine ecosystems

Convenors:
Fei Chai (University of Maine, U.S.A.)
Fangli Qiao (First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, PR China)

Plenary Speaker:
Paulo H.R. Calil (Institute of Oceanography,
          University Federal de Rio Grande, Brazil)

Invited Speaker:
Alexander Babanin (Swinburne University of Technology, Australia)

Both horizontal and vertical advection and mixing are among the most fundamental physical processes for ocean biogeochemistry and marine ecosystems. Well-defined currents, upwelling, meso- and submeso-scale eddies and mixing control the transport and budget of a wide range of physical, biogeochemical, and biological properties (e.g., heat, nutrients, oxygen, dissolved carbon, plankton, fish eggs, and larvae). However, these transports and budgets are often not well understood, even under current climate conditions. Global climate change influences ocean biogeochemistry and marine ecosystems through changes in currents, eddy characteristics, mixing and associated wind-driven and thermohaline circulation. In particular, enhanced surface stratification is expected to produce weaker mixing between the surface layer and depth leading to reduction of primary production, and weakened ventilation can accelerate ocean deoxygenation and acidification at depth. This session welcomes studies that investigate advection, eddies and mixing in the physical fields and their implications for biogeochemistry and marine ecosystems under current and future climate conditions.

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S2: Ocean acidification

Convenors:
Nicholas Bates (Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, Bermuda/USA)
Silvana Birchenough (The Centre for the Environment
          Fisheries and Aquaculture Science Laboratory, UK)

Plenary Speaker:
Jean Pierre Gattuso (Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, CNRS and
           Université Pierre et Marie
Curie-Paris, France)

Invited Speakers:
Ruy Kenji P. Kikuchi (Geosciences Institute, Federal University of Bahia, Brazil)
Nelson Lagos (Universidad Santo Tomás, Chile)

A major change in ocean biogeochemistry is the acidification of global oceans. This change is occurring in concert with climate change since it is mainly due to increased CO2 rather than warming. Though persistent trends in carbon, pH, and ocean acidification exist, quantitative knowledge is still progressing toward a complete picture of the devastating effects of acidification on a wide range of marine organisms, particularly those that build shells and skeletons from calcium carbonate. This session encourages submissions that discuss: (1) historical and future trends in the marine carbon cycle, ocean acidification, and related ocean biogeochemistry; (2) anthropogenic drivers and climate change relationships with ocean acidification; (3) physico-biogeochemical impacts of ocean acidification on marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems; and (4) future challenges associated with understanding the role of climate change on the physico-biogeochemical impacts of ocean acidification, including consideration of ocean deoxygenation and greater stagnation associated with a slowdown in ocean circulation which may result in an acceleration of acidification.

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S3: Changing ocean chemistry: From trace elements and isotopes to radiochemistry and organic chemicals of environmental concern

Convenors:
Angelica Peña (Institute of Ocean Sciences, Department of
           Fisheries and Oceans, Canada)
Geraldine Sarthou (University of Brest, France)

Plenary Speaker:
Micha Rijkenberg (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, The Netherlands)

Invited Speaker:
Maeve Lohan (School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences,
          University of Plymouth, UK)

Ocean chemistry has changed during the Anthropocene. International efforts such as GEOTRACES have improved scientific understanding of the marine biogeochemical cycles and distributions of trace elements, isotopes and organic chemicals in the marine environment, and their synergistic relationships with anthropogenic drivers and climate change. This session invites presentations on assessments and understanding of changes in ocean chemistry including trace elements, isotopes, radiochemistry and organic chemicals of environmental concern. Areas of focus include: (1) historical and future trends in ocean chemistry and synergistic relationships with marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems; (2) scientific outcomes of recent work on the marine biogeochemical cycles of trace elements, isotopes, radiochemistry and organic chemicals, and measurements of change in ocean chemistry (e.g., iron, mercury, lead, organic chemicals, petroleum, and plastics); and (3) future challenges facing the study of changes in ocean chemistry associated with anthropogenic drivers and climate change.

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S4: Regional models for predictions of climate change impacts: methods, uncertainties and challenges

Convenors:
Shoshiro Minobe (Hokkaido University, Japan)
Enrique N. Curchitser (Institute of Marine and Coastal Science,
          Rutgers University, USA)

Plenary Speaker:
Arne Biastoch (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Germany)

Invited Speaker:
Shin-ichi Ito (FRA, Japan)

Predicting climate change impacts on regional ocean processes and marine ecosystems is challenging because it (1) involves advanced and high-resolution models for the ocean and its resources, (2) has concrete consequences in terms of regional and national management of ecosystem services, and (3) aims to provide direct scientific support in the implementation of the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management.  A number of practical and conceptual challenges occurring at the regional scale will be highlighted in this session.
               
First, regional projections are subject to uncertainties that arise from the baseline global climate projections, the downstream modelling tools and in combining models. Regional models (RM), including regional air-sea coupled models or regional ocean models, are the starting points for understanding and projecting climate change on a regional scale. While global climate models are capable of capturing the large-scale mean climate behavior, they have limitations for regional assessments due to their coarse spatial resolutions. We welcome papers addressing the downscaling of global climate models to regional scale, including a variety of methods, both statistical and dynamical, such as high-resolution regional ocean circulation models with embedded biogeochemical models, and statistical models relating local population statistics to climate forcing or climate indices.

Secondly, expanding the RM projections to predicting climate change impacts on regional ecosystems in combination with other drivers such as fishing, requires the integration of ecosystem processes and knowledge on the ecosystem functioning, though a combination of multiple models. The use of multiple models can be three fold: (1) using several multidisciplinary models to build end-to-end models from the physics to the high trophic levels and their exploitation; (2) using multiple models to address uncertainty of the projections due to model structure and processes (e.g., envelope approach, or comparative approach across models); and (3) using multiple hybrid approaches to integrate most of available information and data such as combination of climate statistical niche models and foodweb models. We welcome papers addressing the challenges and uncertainties in combining multiple models for regional global change impacts on ecosystems, and provide the opportunity for papers that combine different modelling approaches in order to improve the projections of global change, including climate change in combination with other stressors such as fishing and pollution.

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S5: Coastal blue carbon and other ocean carbon sinks

Convenors:
Stephen Crooks (ESA Phillip Williams & Associates, USA)
Luis Valdés (Ocean Science Section, IOC-UNESCO)

Plenary Speaker:
Margareth Copertino (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Brazil)

Coastal and Marine Ecosystems (CMEs) - such as mangroves, tidal marshes, and seagrass meadows - mitigate the effects of climate change by sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and oceans. CMEs also sequester carbon at significantly higher rates than terrestrial forests and store three to five times more carbon per equivalent area than tropical forests. Some of this excess carbon is exported and subsidises adjacent ecosystems, including open ocean and beach ecosystems. The remaining excess production of CMEs is buried in the sediments, where it can remain stored over millenary time scales, thereby representing a strong natural carbon sink. In addition to burying a fraction of their own production, blue carbon sinks reduce flow, turbulence and attenuate wave action, thereby promoting sedimentation and reducing sediment resuspension, and providing a natural protection from storms and sea level rise, shoreline erosion, etc. This session will combine recent results on blue carbon and other ocean carbon sinks with a social science approach towards the prevention of CMEs degradation caused by land-based activities.

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S6: Climate change in the seasonal domain: Impacts on the phenology of marine ecosystems and their consequences

Convenors:
Mark Payne (Technical University of Denmark, Denmark)
Rubao Ji (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA)

Plenary Speaker:
Lynda Chambers (Bureau of Meteorology, Phillip Island Nature Parks, Australia)

Invited Speaker:
Sanae Chiba (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan)

The impacts of climate change on the timing of seasonal events (phenology) is well documented in terrestrial ecosystems. However, the challenges associated with observing life in the ocean have greatly limited our ability to understand the corresponding impacts on marine ecosystems. Nevertheless, changes in phenology in the ocean are inevitable and can potentially have consequences across multiple trophic levels (e.g., via the match-mismatch hypothesis). This session will: (1) enable new results to be presented across multiple trophic levels; (2) allow researchers to exchange methods to study phenology based on limited marine data sets; and (3) attempt to draw together our understanding of climate change impacts in the seasonal domain.

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S7: Evolutionary response of marine organisms to climate change

Convenors:
Philip Munday (ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies/School of Marine
          and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Australia)

Plenary Speaker:
Philip Munday (ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies/School of Marine
          and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Australia)

Invited Speaker:
Robin Waples (Northwest Fisheries Science Center, USA)

Can organisms keep track with the environmental changes, and what is the evidence? Global change is affecting marine organisms through alterations of both the biotic and abiotic environment. Significant changes have been observed in relation to temperature, oxygen and other biogeochemical properties, but also changes in species composition and interactions are abundant. When organisms face altered environmental conditions they can acclimatize through phenotypic plasticity, migrate to favorable conditions or adapt genetically to the altered selection regime. In recent years, ecological evidence has been accumulating on changes in phenology, behavior and distribution of marine organisms, the latter including model-based forecasting. In contrast, there is a scarcity of genetically based evidence for evolution in response to climate change. This holds for both quantitative and molecular genetic investigations attempting to disentangle environmental and evolutionary effects on the observed trait changes. Insights of the speed and magnitude of evolutionary changes in marine organisms will be of paramount importance for understanding and predicting impacts of climate change in the sea and the associated ecosystem services. For this session we will focus on studies of the effect of climate change on marine organisms with evidence of evolutionary responses. We invite contributions using either molecular genetic or quantitative genetic methods, including long-term temporal genetic studies. Likewise, model-based predictions of species distributions, ecosystem changes and related bio-economical services, which take evolution into account, are encouraged.

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S8: Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity and resilience

Convenors:
Patricia Miloslavich (Universidad Simon Bolivar, Venezuela)
Jake Rice (Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Canada)

Plenary Speaker:
Lisa Levin (Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego)

Invited Speaker:
Camilo Mora (University of Hawaii, USA)

Biodiversity is often viewed as an ecosystem characteristic of a healthy environment that enables resilience to perturbations. Climate change can impact community composition resulting in loss of habitat, timing of life cycle events, changes in species distribution that either removes a species from the system or introduces a new species. These impacts affect the function and structure of regional marine ecosystems on various spatial and temporal scales. Climate variability is projected to change the magnitude and frequency of extreme events such that marine ecosystems may be pushed to a tipping point beyond which new processes and structures may emerge. This session encourages papers that investigate observed and predicted impacts of climate change and variability on marine biodiversity and regional ecosystem resilience.

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S9: Impact of climate change on ecosystem carrying capacity via food-web spatial relocations

Convenors:
Brian R. MacKenzie (Technical University of Denmark, Denmark)

Plenary Speaker:
Coleen Moloney (University of Cape Town, South Africa)

Invited Speaker:
Jason Link (NOAA Fisheries, USA)

Individual species are expected to respond to climate change effects on oceans in regionally-distinct ways according to the limits of their life history traits. One response will be changes in spatial extent with impacts on ecosystem structure through emigrations and immigrations that open or fill new niches. Regional food web linkages are expected to relocate, and trophic interactions become modified by shifts in space and time of the prey, predator, or competitor. This session offers the opportunity to present innovative food-web linkages modeling tools that include expected species spatial re-locations. Contributions can describe past and forecast future changes in global or regional trophic interactions (e.g., predator-prey interactions, competition) due to climate impacts on species biology (e.g., changes in abundances, distributions, vulnerabilities to new abiotic conditions including pH and hypoxia). Papers predicting where interactions might occur under future climate scenarios are encouraged.

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S10: Forecasting climate change impacts on fish populations and fisheries

Convenors:
Alistair Hobday (CSIRO)
Anne Hollowed (Alaska Fisheries Science Centre,
          National Marine Fisheries Service, USA)

Plenary Speaker:
Patrick Lehodey (Space Oceanography Division, CLS, France)

Invited Speaker:
V. Kripa (CMFRI, India)
Elvira Poloczanska (CSIRO, Australia)

Climate change is a major driver affecting the productivity of key species in global fisheries. This session encourages papers that focus on identifying the mechanisms and forecasting the impact of climate change on the productivity and distribution of important marine species that sustain global or regional fisheries. Papers identifying the mechanisms that link climate to fish productivity or distribution will be considered. The session will focus on model projections of regional future climate and physical oceanographic scenarios linked to fish population dynamics. These linkages can include changes in biogeochemical processes, phytoplankton and zooplankton communities, or ecologically important fish species. The linkages can be made by statistical and mechanistic approaches from a range of models including mass-balance, sized-based, individual-based and end-to-end models. Additional topics of interest include responses of fisheries management systems, and the interaction between climate and harvest impacts on fish populations.

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S11: Impacts on coastal communities

Convenors:
Eddie Allison (School of Marine and Environmental Affairs,
          University of Washington)
Manuel Barange (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK)

Plenary Speaker:
Eddie Allison (School of Marine and Environmental Affairs,
          University of Washington, USA)

Invited Speaker:
Nesar Ahmed (Bangladesh Agricultural University, Bangladesh)

By their proximity to the ocean, coastal communities naturally rely on ecosystem services provided by marine systems. The extent of this reliance, or the type of services relied on, will vary from region to region. Climate change impacts on ecosystems will alter ecosystem services, with both negative and positive alterations. Additionally, there will be direct climate change impacts on coastal communities due to such factors as sea level rise, storm intensity or frequency, wave dynamics, and coastal erosion. This session will focus on the impacts of climate change on coastal communities due to alteration in ecosystem services or direct physical stressors, attempting to quantify the vulnerability of coastal communities to climate change. Papers that outline ecosystem and adaptive management for mitigation are encouraged.

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S12: Linking climate change to marine management objectives

Convenors:
Jacquelynne R. King (Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and
          Oceans Canada, Canada)
Alexander Turra (Oceanographic Institute, São Paulo University, Brazil)

Plenary Speaker:
Laura Richards (North Pacific Marine Science Organization)

Invited Speaker:
Kao Sochivi (Fisheries Administration, Cambodia)

Marine ecosystems are subject to a number of stressors, such as pollution, resource exploitation, coastal development, marine infrastructures and transport. Historically, management objectives have focused on addressing individual stressors, disregarding their often synergistic and compounding effects. The application of the ecosystem approach to management has reversed this trend and has encouraged more holistic and cross-sectorial management objectives. Climate change is expected to affect many of these stressors as well as the responses of marine ecosystems to them. This session will consider single as well as cross-sectoral management applications to address the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems in the context of expected climate change impacts, such as changes in productivity and seasonality of resources. The session will also consider the combined effects of climate change with other direct stressors (such as pollution) and how they interact with fisheries and ecosystem management scenarios.

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W1: Addressing uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts in marine ecosystems
March 22 (1-day workshop)

Convenors:
Manuel Barange (Plymouth Marine Labs, UK)
William Cheung (University of British Columbia, Canada)
Brian MacKenzie (Technical University of Denmark, Denmark)
Mark R. Payne (Technical University of Denmark, Denmark)

Invited Speaker:
William Cheung (University of British Columbia, Canada)

Accurate projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies. However, the biological sciences, and their associated social and economic components, trail behind their physical counterparts in terms of the robustness, reliability and accuracy of their projections. In this workshop we propose to advance the current state of the art about how such projections can be made, and, to answer the question, “how confident are we of the robustness and usefulness of projections to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the context of ecosystem-based management of marine resources?”

We encourage contributions from the scientific community addressing uncertainties in future fisheries and seafood production under climate change, with productivity, abundance, food-web structure and distribution of marine populations, species and communities as potential case studies. We also welcome contributions from other disciplines, particularly the physical and social sciences, including economics, that describe how uncertainty is acknowledged and handled, and what makes robust projections/predictions in these fields.

The primary output from the workshop will be a focused review paper synthesising the lessons learned from the workshop. We will synthesise the most promising of these approaches in the context of uncertainty and risk assessment to both assess the quality of impact projections, and improve confidence in predictions. Finally, we will highlight gaps in existing knowledge and identify future research needs to improve the projections of climate change impacts in marine systems.

The workshop will address the various types of uncertainties common in modelling (see below). Plenary talks are invited to, in the first instance, introduce these aspects and the associated key questions to a general audience. They will then be followed by focused discussions in subgroups centred on each of the uncertainty elements. A final, brief, summary session will pull the threads back together.

We ask that potential presenters shape their contribution in relation to the fundamental uncertainty inherent in all modelling tasks and their consequences for projecting climate change impacts. A suggested classification of uncertainty types is included in the following table: we encourage presenters to address at least one of these themes, although other related themes are also welcome. We urge presenters to include specific descriptions of the uncertainties they intend to address in their presentation, when they submit their abstracts. These themes will also form the basis for the discussion groups: all participants in the workshop are encouraged to come with their own ideas and opinions to contribute.

Uncertainty type

Description

Examples

Internal variability

Variability of natural physical and ecological processes

ENSO, predator-prey dynamics,
Nonstationarity in stock-recruitment relationships

Parametric

Specific parameter values used in the models

Diet composition, dispersal rate

Structural

Differences in the degree of abstraction and model architecture, design and assumptions

Sized-based approach, functional-group based approach, species-based approach

Initialisation

Uncertainty in the initial state of the system

Sub-decadal GCM predictions, weather forecasts

Scenario

Differences in the natural and/or anthropogenic forcing driving the model

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), Changes in fishing patterns

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W2 & W6: Joint Brazilian Ocean Acidification Research and Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) Workshop: biogeochemical-physical interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere.
March 21-22 (2-day workshop)

Convenors:
Ruy Kikuchi (Bahia Federal University, Brazil)
Leticia C. da Cunha (Rio de Janeiro State University, Brazil)
Rodrigo Kerr (Rio Grande Federal University, Brazil)
Michelle Graco (Instituto del Mar del Perú, Peru)

Invited Speakers:
Silvana Birchenough (Cefas, UK)
Rosane G. Ito (Federal University of Rio Grande, Brazil)
Arne Körtzinger (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Germany)
Christian Vargas (Universidad de Concepción)

The Brazilian Ocean Acidification Research Group (BrOA; www.broa.furg.br) was created in December 2012, as an action of the activities of the workshop "Studying Ocean Acidification and its Effects on Marine Ecosystems" (Dec. 4-6, 2012, Cananéia, Brazil). BrOA operates in distinct environments along the Brazilian coast, including coastal and estuarine ecosystems and oceanic open waters.

The International Surface Ocean - Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) project is an international research initiative aiming to understand the key biogeochemical-physical interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere. For more than ten years, SOLAS has been fostering cutting-edge research in air-sea interactions, as well as promoting communication and integration of different research groups all over the world.

The focus of this joint workshop is to bring together the the international community that conducts research on sea-air CO2 fluxes and their implication to ocean biogeochemistry (e.g. ocean acidification, changes in ocean biogeochemistry), as well as on the response of marine organisms to ocean acidification effects (bio-assays), paleoceanography and proxies of past ocean acidification events and carbonate system, and marine ecosystem modeling.

We encourage participation from BrOA and SOLAS researchers. The workshop will combine invited and selected talks, along with breakout group discussions corresponding to the main BrOA network and SOLAS topics. The general content of presentations, along with summations of general and breakout group discussions will be included in the Third BrOA Report/SOLAS Workshop Report. Here, participants will assess the advances in analytical methods and reporting scientific data on sea-air gas fluxes and ocean biogeochemistry, and the regional needs to study ocean acidification and sea-air gas fluxes, such as analytical and logistic facilities, data access, or capacity building. Activities of emerging research groups (e.g. Latin America, Asia, Africa) will also be reported. In addition it is anticipated that a journal manuscript assessing the state of the art of ocean acidification studies in South America will be prepared.

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W3: Effects of climate change on the biologically-driven ocean carbon pumps
March 21-22 (2-day workshop)

Convenors:
Curtis Deutsch (University of Washington, School of Oceanography, USA)
Nianzhi Jiao (Xiamen University, State Key Laboratory
          of Marine Environmental Science, China)
Louis Legendre (Pierre & Marie Curie University, Oceanography Laboratory, France)
Uta Passow (University of California Santa Barbara, Marine Science Institute, USA)

Invited Speakers:
Thorsten Dittmar (University of Oldenburg, Germany)
Marion Gehlen (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de L'Environnement, France)
Phoebe Lam (University of California, Santa Cruz, USA)

The transfer of atmospheric CO2 into the ocean is the largest carbon sink on Earth. The best known mechanisms for the sequestration of marine carbon are three vertical ocean carbon pumps, i.e. solubility, carbonate and soft-tissue or organic (“biological carbon pump”, BCP). The latter two pumps are biologically-driven. The carbonate pump consists in the precipitation of calcium carbonate in surface waters by calcifying organisms followed by sinking of the resulting bio-minerals to depth. The BCP is driven by primary production in the euphotic zone, followed by the transfer of carbon to depth by sinking of particulate organic carbon, by vertical migrations of zooplankton, and by vertical transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) by physical processes, like mixing and convection. An additional biological mechanism of ocean carbon sequestration was recently described under the name of microbial carbon pump (MCP). The vertical carbon pumps transport carbon from surface to depth, whereas the MCP transforms short-lived DOC into long-lived DOC. (Technically, the vertical carbon pumps maintain the gradient in total inorganic carbon between surface and deep waters, and the MCP maintains a concentration gradient between short- and long-lived DOC). Carbon is chemically sequestered in long-lived DOC at any depth in the water column. The MCP consists in the microbial transformation of labile organic carbon to refractory DOC (RDOC). In the deep ocean, the huge pool of RDOC accounts for >90% of the total marine organic carbon, and has an average residence time of ~5000 years. As the amount of carbon existing as RDOC is equivalent to the total inventory of atmospheric CO2, changes in some of the processes that regulate the RDOC pool may be important factors in carbon cycling and climate change.

The quantitative roles played by the three biologically-driven ocean carbon pumps (i.e. carbonate pump, BCP, and MCP) is a subject of active research by field oceanographers, experimental biogeochemists, marine ecologists, and carbon-cycle modellers, but these research communities work largely independently. Hence, they often reach conclusions that are quite different. The proposed workshop intends to bring together specialists of field observations (including paleoceanographers), experimentalists and modellers who work on one or more of the three biologically-driven ocean carbon pumps. The objectives of the workshop address the possibility that the three biologically-driven ocean carbon pumps are highly responsive to climate change. Predicting these responses requires an understanding and quantification of the mechanisms that control the responses to environmental forcing.

The workshop will be comprised of four sessions. Sessions 1 to 3 will be dedicated to the three approaches (i.e. field-observational, experimental, and modelling, respectively) used to investigate the biologically driven ocean carbon pumps. Goals within each of these sessions include familiarizing all participants with the different perspectives, identifying the main stumbling blocks and challenges that presently exist, reviewing new results, and discussing developments and actions needed to make progress in coming years. Examples of processes to be discussed include: plankton community structure, stoichiometry, particle dynamics, bacterial remineralization, and production and removal of RDOC. Discussion periods will try to elucidate consensus views among the different approaches on the study of biologically-driven ocean carbon pumps. Session 4 will build on the results of the previous sessions to outline and draft a white paper. This paper will focus on multidisciplinary developments needed to address the responses of the biologically-driven ocean carbon pumps to climate change, and their feedbacks to the climate. The white paper will be submitted for publication in the peer-reviewed literature. Necessary studies to address responses and feedbacks of biologically-driven ocean carbon pumps will be identified, relevant approaches will be described; required national and international tools (e.g. research programs and infrastructures) will be identified; and strategies to achieve these goals will be proposed.

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W4: Upwelling Systems Under Future Climate Change
March 21-22 (2-day workshop)

Convenors:
Kenneth Drinkwater (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)
Shoshiro Minobe (Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University, Japan)

Invited Speakers:
Enrique Curchitser (Rutgers University, USA)
William Sydeman (Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, USA)

Ocean upwelling regions contain the most productive fisheries in the world accounting for around 25% of the global catch.  This fish production results from upwelled nutrients that lead to high primary and secondary production. Characteristically, fisheries in upwelling areas are dominated by small and medium sized schooling pelagic fish, especially sardine and anchovy that contribute significantly to the annual global fish production.  Bakun (1990) proposed increased winds in eastern boundary currents (EBCs) under climate change will result in increased upwelling. While evidence for recent increased upwelling has been found in some EBCs, other EBCs and upwelling regions have shown decreased upwelling intensity or had no trend at all. As such it has recently been suggested that Bakun’s hypothesis was over simplified and it is not clear that there will be increased upwelling in EBCs, at least the Pacific, in the future. Clearly more work is needed to determine the future state of upwelling, not only in EBCs, but in other upwelling types.  Upwelling systems typically have been poorly represented in global models owing to the small spatial scales of the upwelling relative to the horizontal resolution of the global models.  Indeed, EBCs are often associated with warm temperature biases in the model results that strongly limit the prediction of future evolution.  Also, it is not simply local winds that affect upwelling but basin-scale physics needs to be considered to understand and simulation regional upwelling variability.  For these reasons the most recent high resolution global model results, as well as available regional models of upwelling regions, are needed to meet some of the challenges in developing upwelling scenarios under future climate change. Also, any attempt to predict future fisheries yields in upwelling areas in relation to global warming needs to consider retrospective studies of the impact of climate variability of anchovies and sardines.

The main objective of the workshop is to investigate the potential effects of climate change on upwelling systems.  The most recent available global and regional models will be used to determine future scenarios in the upwelling regions of the world’s oceans.  These, together with information on the present trends in upwelling, will be used to determine the likely impacts on the primary and secondary production and further on fish and fisheries. This will be undertaken using a combination of retrospective analyses and ecosystem modeling.  Examination of several of the major upwelling areas around the globe, e.g. within eastern and western boundary currents, along the equator, in the Indian Ocean, in Polar Regions, etc. will allow comparisons between regions.  The workshop will also cover physical, biogeochemical, biological, fish and fisheries dynamics.  The workshop will consist of invited and contributed talks that will focus upon (1) future climate scenarios in upwelling regions around the globe and (2) recent observed trends in these regions. Breakout groups will discuss the likely impacts of the future upwelling scenarios on the physics and biogeochemistry, as well as the biology, including fish and fisheries and will identify what additional research is needed. Plenary presentations and discussions from the breakout groups will allow interactions between disciplines and trophic levels. 

Several outputs will produced from this workshop.  The workshop stems from a CLIVAR/IMBER/SOLAS working group and a workshop report will be presented to these global change projects. A journal paper on the recent upwelling trends in as many of the world’s upwelling regions and on their physical and biogeochemical (e.g. oxygen) scenarios under future climate change is also planned. The expected impact of future change on anchovies and sardines will either be highlighted in the workshop report or in a separate paper focused only upon this topic, a decision that will be made during the workshop.  The results of the work on anchovies and sardines will be presented at the planned joint 2016 PICES/ICES Symposium on Drivers of Dynamics of Small Pelagic Neritic Fish Resources.”

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W5: Moving Towards Climate-Ready Fishery Systems:
Regional comparisons of climate adaptation in marine fisheries

March 21-22 (2-day workshop)

Convenors:
Roger Griffis (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA)
Alan Haynie (Alaska Fisheries Science Center, USA)
Katherine Mills (Gulf of Maine Research Institute, USA)
Gretta Pecl (University of Tasmania, Australia)
Andrew Pershing (Gulf of Maine Research Institute, USA)

Invited Speakers:
Manuel Barange (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK)
Jason Link (NOAA Fisheries, USA)
Leif Nøttestad (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)
John Pinnegar (Centre for Environment, Fisheries & Aquaculture Science, UK)
Éva Plagányi-Lloyd (CSIRO, Australia)

The impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fish populations are being increasingly recognized and are expected to increase as warming trends, extreme warm events, and ocean acidification become more pronounced. While these impacts have been documented and compared across regions, much less attention has been devoted to understanding how fisheries—particularly the fishing industry and the management and governance systems that regulate harvesting—are responding to these changes. By comparing how responses differ between ecosystems and governance regimes, we will develop a typology of approaches that can be employed at multiple decision-making scales to enhance resilience to climate variability and change.

This workshop will bring together scientists and practitioners from different regions of the world to document and compare how marine fisheries are responding to the impacts of climate change. We are especially interested in comparing the response of fisheries in the northwest Atlantic, Norwegian-Barents Sea, Gulf of Alaska, and Australia, four regions that have experienced rapid environmental changes but have very different fisheries and fishery management systems. Within each region, we will outline the major climate impacts on fisheries and the responses to these impacts at different scales (e.g., temporal, spatial, and social/institutional). The rationale behind selection of specific approaches and tools for climate adaptation will be discussed in the context of constraints and opportunities that exist within ecological, social, and governance systems of different regions. Specific objectives of the workshop include:

  1. identifying climate adaptation measures that are being pursued in marine fisheries,
  2. assessing conditions that constrain or facilitate adaptive actions, and
  3. comparing how adaptation responses and options vary across ecosystems, fisheries, and management regimes.

The workshop will include a combination of invited talks that provide an overview of climate impacts, adaptation measures, and the fisheries context in each region and breakout groups to explore similarities and differences among regions in adaptation approaches for fisheries. A working group session will draft a framework for comparative analysis of climate adaptation initiatives in marine fisheries across regions and populate elements of this framework with information from each region.These results will be published in a journal manuscript.

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  • NEWS

    April 27, 2015
    Deadline for Manuscript submission has been changed from May 1 to May 31, 2015.

    Deadline for Abstract Submission, Eearly Registration, and Financial Support Application has been changed from Oct. 31 to Nov. 3, 2014

     
    Important Dates
  • May 31, 2015
    [extended from May 1]
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    anuscript submission deadline
       
      PAST DEADLINES
  • March 21–28, 2015
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  • December 5, 2014
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    December 15, 2014
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  • May 12, 2014
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    orkshop acceptance notification
  • April 14, 2014
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  • November 30, 2014
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  • November 3, 2014
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