D2
Presentations
Contemporary and next generation climate and oceanographic models, technical advances and new approaches
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Co-Convenors:
Jonathan Hare (Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA,
USA)
Shin-ichi Ito (Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute,
FRA, Japan)
The projection of marine ecosystem response to
future climate scenarios is needed to assess and implement marine
ecosystem management. The marine ecosystem is part of the earth
system, and prediction of ecosystem responses requires integrated
knowledge from physical, chemical, and biological perspectives,
as well as from marine, terrestrial and atmospheric perspectives.
The earth system is complex with non-linear feedbacks (including
biological to physical), regime shifts, and, in some cases, thresholds
beyond which change is irreversible. Therefore, the uncertainties
of climate and oceanographic models cause uncertainties of the
projection of marine ecosystem response not only directly but
also through complex feedback mechanisms. To reduce the uncertainties
of the marine ecosystem projection, we must understand the mechanisms
controlling climate systems and the linkages to marine ecosystems.
Specific species responses to future ecosystem conditions are
required by natural resource managers, and these require specific
information (e.g., environments in
coastal area during the short spawning period) as well as information
regarding change of the ecosystem as a whole (e.g.,
total primary production, food-web dynamics). These issues are
not part of climate modeling, but mechanistic links between the
biological, physical, and chemical systems must be identified
and incorporated into coupled population-ecosystem-climate models.
Technical advances and new approaches are essential to achieve
the goal of producing better projections of marine ecosystem response
to future climate scenarios. This session will focus on climate
and oceanographic models, including modeling of climate and ecosystem
interaction, and technical advances and new approaches.
Wednesday,
April 28 (14:30-18:30)
14:35
Michio Kawamiya
(Invited)
Global change projection for ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem
(D2-6117)
(pdf,
1.2 Mb)
15:00
Masami Nonaka,
Bunmei Taguchi, Hideharu Sasaki and Hisashi Nakamura
Decadal variability in the oceanic frontal zones in the western
North Pacific Ocean in an eddy-resolving OGCM (D2-6325) (waiting for permission)
15:15
Georgina A. Gibson,
Kate Hedström, Enrique N. Curchitser and Albert J. Hermann
Simulating lower trophic level ecosystem dynamics in the Bering
Sea (D2-6209) (waiting for permission)
15:30
Yasumasa Miyazawa,
Xinyu Guo, Ruo Chao Zhang, Sergey M. Varlamov, Tomowo Watanabe,
Takashi Setou and Daisuke Ambe
Roles of the in-situ observations in the detection of the Kuroshio
frontal variability south of Japan (D2-6324)
(pdf,
1.6 Mb)
15:45
Enrique N. Curchitser,
Kate Hedström, William Large and Jon Wolf
From a climate to a multi-scale earth system model: Technical
issues and advances (D2-6357)
(pdf,
0.6 Mb)
16:20
Anand Gnanadesikan
(Invited)
Climate models and fisheries: Opportunities and challenges (D2-6123)
(pdf,
0.8 Mb)
16:45
Kosei Komatsu,
Naoki Yoshie, Shin-ichi Ito, Takahiko Kameda, Tsuneo Ono, Kiyotaka
Hidaka, Toru Hasegawa, Akira Kuwata, Miwa Nakamachi, Yuji Okazaki,
Takeshi Okunishi, Kazuaki Tadokoro, Hiroaki Saito and Yasuhiro
Yamanaka
Interannual variations of 3D structures of lower-trophic-level
ecosystems in the western North Pacific using a new marine ecosystem
model based on an eddy-resolving data-assimilative OGCM (D2-6323) (waiting for permission)
17:00
Francisco E. Werner,
Peter H. Wiebe and Jonathan A. Hare
Developing a modeling framework for basin scale models of marine
ecosystems (D2-6348)
(pdf,
1.5 Mb)
17:15
Michio J. Kishi,
Shin-ichi Ito, Bernard A. Megrey, Kenneth A. Rose and Francisco
E. Werner
A review of the NEMURO.FISH model application to marine ecosystem
investigations and its ability to evaluate responses of fish
to future climate change (D2-6298)
(pdf,
1 Mb)
17:30
Scott Condie,
Mark Hepburn, Jim Mansbridge and Phillip England
A second generation online tool for exploring oceanographic
connectivity (D2-6051)
(pdf,
1 Mb)
17:45
Takashi T. Sakamoto,
Yoshiki Komuro, Masayoshi Ishii, Hiroaki Tatebe, Akira Hasegawa,
Hideo Shiogama, Takahiro Toyoda, Masato Mori, Seita Emori, Hiroyasu
Hasumi and Masahide Kimoto
MIROC4.0 – A high-resolution AOGCM for the near-term climate
prediction (D2-6337)
(pdf,
1.7 Mb)
18:00
William Peterson,
Hongsheng Bi, Cheryl A. Morgan and Edmundo Casillas The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and marine
food webs in the northern California Current: Variations in
source waters which feed the California Current may be the mechanism
which links climate change with ecosystem response (D2-6384) (waiting for permission)
18:15
Maria A. Gasalla,
O. Sato and P.S. Polito
An application of the ethno-oceanographic framework to study
global change issues off the South Brazil Bight with remote-sensing
data (D2-6388) (waiting for permission)