P1-D1 Presentations
Forecasting impacts: From climate to fish
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Kenneth Drinkwater (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)
Harald Loeng (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)
Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Hokkaido University, Japan)
Franz J. Mueter (School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA)
Carl O’Brien (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, UK)
Graham Pilling (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, UK)

This session will focus on the impacts of future climate change on the physical oceanography, biogeochemistry, and food webs of the world oceans. This includes contributions on appropriate methods for determining impact projections and estimating levels of uncertainty as well as actual development of ecosystem scenarios. Presentations will address downscaling from global models and the problems involved to produce regional future climate and physical oceanographic scenarios, scenarios of climate-induced changes in nutrient dynamics and other biogeochemical processes, changes in ecosystem community structure and function from phytoplankton and zooplankton through to fish populations, including changes in production and distribution and their influence upon biodiversity.


Monday, April 26 (11:00-18:30)



James E. Overland, Andrew Bakun, Jürgen Alheit, James Hurrell, David Mackas and Arthur Miller (presented by Nicholas Bond)
Match/mismatch of fish population changes to climate events (P1-D1-6045)
(pdf, 1 Mb)



Chan Joo Jang and Sinjae Yoo
Change in the North Pacific mixed layer depth and its impact on primary production in a warming world (P1-D1-6315)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation



William L. Cheung, John P. Dunne, Jorge Sarmiento and Daniel Pauly
Integrating eco-physiology and plankton dynamics into projected global changes in marine biodiversity and maximum catch potential under climate change (P1-D1-6105)
(waiting for permission)



Teruhisa Komatsu, Masahiro Fukuda, Atsuko Mikami, Yutaka Kokubu, Shizuha Mizuno, Hideaki Tanoue and Michio Kawamiya
Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in East Asia under A2 scenario of global warming and its impact on fishes (P1-D1-6089)



Stewart Frusher, Gretta Pecl, Caleb Gardner, Marcus Haward, Alistair J. Hobday, Sarah Jennings, Melissa Nursey-Bray, André E. Punt, Hilary Revill and Ingrid van Putten
Fisheries and ecosystems in a changing climate: A case study on the Tasmanian east coast lobster fishery (P1-D1-6313)
(pdf, 1.8 Mb)



George L. Hunt, Jr., Lisa B. Eisner, Edward W. Farley, Jamal H. Moss, Jeffrey M. Napp and Phyllis J. Stabeno
The oscillating control hypothesis: Reassessment in view of new information from the eastern Bering Sea (P1-D1-6036)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)



Roy Mendelssohn (presented by Frank Shwing)
State-space analysis of ocean and atmospheric data for use in forecasting ecological impacts of climate change (P1-D1-6387)
(pdf, 1.4 Mb)



Myron A. Peck, Patricia Reglero, Motomitsu Takahashi and Ignacio A. Catalán
Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish: Environmental thresholds and climate-driven changes in populations (P1-D1-6292)
(pdf, 1.8 Mb)



Jonathan A. Hare, Mark J. Wuenschel and Matthew E. Kimball
Larval dispersal, overwinter mortality, and climate change: Forecasting range shifts of a sub-tropical fish species in a western boundary current system (P1-D1-6195)
(pdf, 0.9 Mb)



Pierre Fréon, David M. Checkley, Jr. and Francisco E. Werner
Climate change and small pelagic fish: A review and recommendations (P1-D1-6308)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)



Shin-ichi Ito, Takeshi Okunishi, Michio J. Kishi and Muyin Wang
Potential impact of climate change on Pacific saury (P1-D1-6266)
(pdf, 0.7 Mb)



Kenneth A. Rose, Enrique N. Curchitser, Kate Hedström, Jerome Fiechter, Miguel Bernal, Shin-ichi Ito, Salvador Lluch-Cota, Bernard A. Megrey, Christopher A. Edwards, David M. Checkley, Jr., Alec MacCall, Tony Koslow, Sam McClatchie, Kenneth L. Denman and Francisco E. Werner
Development of a climate-to-fish-to-fishers model: Proof-of-principle using long-term population dynamics of anchovies and sardines in the California Current (P1-D1-6106)
(pdf, 2.3 Mb)



Randall M. Peterman (Invited)
Uncertainties about climatic change and Pacific salmon: Risk assessment, risk communication, and risk management (P1-D1-6052)
(pdf, 0.2 Mb)



Anna Gardmark, Stefan Neuenfeldt, Martin Lindegren, Thorsten Blenckner, Eero Aro, Outi Heikinheimo, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Susa Niiranen, Maciej Tomczak, Anieke van Leeuwen, Anders Wikström and Christian Möllmann
Biological ensemble modelling of climate impacts – Improving fisheries science and management by accounting for uncertainty (P1-D1-6301)
(pdf, 0.4 Mb)



Franz J. Mueter, Nicholas A. Bond, Anne B. Hollowed, Carol Ladd and Enrique N. Curchitser
Future recruitment of Bering Sea walleye pollock. Part I: Retrospective patterns and uncertainty (P1-D1-6214)
(pdf, 0.4 Mb)



Nicholas A. Bond, Franz J. Mueter, Anne B. Hollowed, Carol Ladd and Muyin Wang
Future recruitment of Bering Sea walleye pollock. Part II: Ranges in key environmental parameters from global climate model forecasts (P1-D1-6068)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)



Hiroshi Yoshinari, Tomonori Azumaya, Tetsuichiro Funamoto, Akira Kusaka, Orio Yamamura and Akira Nishimura
Numerical simulations of spatio-temporal distribution of juvenile walleye pollock around Hidaka Bay (P1-D1-6183)
(pdf, 0.4 Mb)



Jon Brodziak, Kevin Piner and Dean Courtney
Modeling recruitment responses of striped marlin (Tetrapturus audax) and swordfish (Xiphias gladius) to environmental variability in the North Pacific (P1-D1-6396)
(pdf, 1.3 Mb)



Kerim Aydin, Nicholas A. Bond, Enrique N. Curchitser, Georgina A. Gibson, Kate Hedström, Albert J. Hermann and Ivonne Ortiz
Integrating data, fieldwork, and models into an ecosystem-level forecasting synthesis: The modeling challenge of the Bering Ecosystem Study/Bering Sea Integrated Research Program (BEST-BSIERP) (P1-D1-6215)
(waiting for permission)



Julia L. Blanchard, Nicholas K. Dulvy, Robert Holmes, Manuel Barange and Simon Jennings
Potential climate change impacts on fish production from 20 large marine ecosystems around the world (P1-D1-6275)
(waiting for permission)



  • Symposium Scope
  • Venue
  • Organizers
  • Speakers
  • Scientific Program
  • Schedule
  • Registration Summary
  • Book of Abstracts
  • Publication
  • Presentations
  • Symposium Announcement
  • Contact
    Important Dates
    July 1 , 2010
  • Manuscript submission deadline has been extended until July 1.
    On-line submission will be open on May 17.

    January 15, 2010
  • Abstract acceptance notification
    January 25-29, 2010
  • Notification of financial support grant
    February 5, 2010
  • Early registration deadline
    February 5, 2010
  • Presenters must confirm their attendance and presentations
    April 25-29 , 2010
  • Symposium and associated workshops
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