P1-D1
Presentations
Forecasting impacts: From climate to fish
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Co-Convenors: Kenneth Drinkwater (Institute of Marine
Research, Norway)
Harald Loeng (Institute of Marine Research, Norway) Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Hokkaido University,
Japan) Franz J. Mueter (School of Fisheries
and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA) Carl O’Brien (Centre for Environment,
Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, UK) Graham Pilling (Centre for Environment,
Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, UK)
This session will focus on the impacts
of future climate change on the physical oceanography, biogeochemistry,
and food webs of the world oceans. This includes contributions
on appropriate methods for determining impact projections
and estimating levels of uncertainty as well as actual development
of ecosystem scenarios. Presentations will address downscaling
from global models and the problems involved to produce regional
future climate and physical oceanographic scenarios, scenarios
of climate-induced changes in nutrient dynamics and other
biogeochemical processes, changes in ecosystem community structure
and function from phytoplankton and zooplankton through to
fish populations, including changes in production and distribution
and their influence upon biodiversity.
Monday,
April 26 (11:00-18:30)
11:00
James E. Overland,
Andrew Bakun, Jürgen Alheit, James Hurrell, David Mackas and
Arthur Miller (presented by Nicholas Bond)
Match/mismatch of fish population changes to climate events
(P1-D1-6045)
(pdf,
1 Mb)
11:15
Chan Joo Jang
and Sinjae Yoo
Change in the North Pacific mixed layer depth and its impact
on primary production in a warming world (P1-D1-6315) Permission to post denied.Contact Author for
presentation
11:30
William L. Cheung,
John P. Dunne, Jorge Sarmiento and Daniel Pauly
Integrating eco-physiology and plankton dynamics into projected
global changes in marine biodiversity and maximum catch potential
under climate change (P1-D1-6105) (waiting for permission)
11:45
Teruhisa Komatsu,
Masahiro Fukuda, Atsuko Mikami, Yutaka Kokubu, Shizuha Mizuno,
Hideaki Tanoue and Michio Kawamiya
Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum
horneri, in East Asia under A2 scenario of global
warming and its impact on fishes (P1-D1-6089) Pending
12:00
Stewart Frusher,
Gretta Pecl, Caleb Gardner, Marcus Haward, Alistair J. Hobday,
Sarah Jennings, Melissa Nursey-Bray, André E. Punt, Hilary Revill
and Ingrid van Putten
Fisheries and ecosystems in a changing climate: A case study
on the Tasmanian east coast lobster fishery (P1-D1-6313)
(pdf,
1.8 Mb)
12:15
George L. Hunt,
Jr., Lisa B. Eisner, Edward W. Farley, Jamal H. Moss, Jeffrey
M. Napp and Phyllis J. Stabeno
The oscillating control hypothesis: Reassessment in view of
new information from the eastern Bering Sea (P1-D1-6036)
(pdf,
1.2 Mb)
12:30
Roy Mendelssohn
(presented by Frank Shwing)
State-space analysis of ocean and atmospheric data for use in
forecasting ecological impacts of climate change (P1-D1-6387)
(pdf,
1.4 Mb)
12:45
Myron A. Peck,
Patricia Reglero, Motomitsu Takahashi and Ignacio A. Catalán
Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish: Environmental
thresholds and climate-driven changes in populations (P1-D1-6292)
(pdf,
1.8 Mb)
14:45
Jonathan A. Hare,
Mark J. Wuenschel and Matthew E. Kimball
Larval dispersal, overwinter mortality, and climate change:
Forecasting range shifts of a sub-tropical fish species in a
western boundary current system (P1-D1-6195)
(pdf,
0.9 Mb)
15:00
Pierre Fréon,
David M. Checkley, Jr. and Francisco E. Werner
Climate change and small pelagic fish: A review and recommendations
(P1-D1-6308)
(pdf,
1.2 Mb)
15:15
Shin-ichi Ito,
Takeshi Okunishi, Michio J. Kishi and Muyin Wang
Potential impact of climate change on Pacific saury (P1-D1-6266)
(pdf,
0.7 Mb)
15:30
Kenneth A. Rose,
Enrique N. Curchitser, Kate Hedström, Jerome Fiechter, Miguel
Bernal, Shin-ichi Ito, Salvador Lluch-Cota, Bernard A. Megrey,
Christopher A. Edwards, David M. Checkley, Jr., Alec MacCall,
Tony Koslow, Sam McClatchie, Kenneth L. Denman and Francisco
E. Werner
Development of a climate-to-fish-to-fishers model: Proof-of-principle
using long-term population dynamics of anchovies and sardines
in the California Current (P1-D1-6106)
(pdf,
2.3 Mb)
16:20
Randall M. Peterman(Invited)
Uncertainties about climatic change and Pacific salmon: Risk
assessment, risk communication, and risk management (P1-D1-6052)
(pdf,
0.2 Mb)
16:45
Anna Gardmark,
Stefan Neuenfeldt, Martin Lindegren, Thorsten Blenckner, Eero
Aro, Outi Heikinheimo, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Susa Niiranen,
Maciej Tomczak, Anieke van Leeuwen, Anders Wikström and Christian
Möllmann
Biological ensemble modelling of climate impacts – Improving
fisheries science and management by accounting for uncertainty
(P1-D1-6301)
(pdf,
0.4 Mb)
17:00
Franz J. Mueter,
Nicholas A. Bond, Anne B. Hollowed, Carol Ladd and Enrique N.
Curchitser
Future recruitment of Bering Sea walleye pollock. Part I: Retrospective
patterns and uncertainty (P1-D1-6214)
(pdf,
0.4 Mb)
17:15
Nicholas A. Bond,
Franz J. Mueter, Anne B. Hollowed, Carol Ladd and Muyin Wang
Future recruitment of Bering Sea walleye pollock. Part II: Ranges
in key environmental parameters from global climate model forecasts
(P1-D1-6068)
(pdf,
1.2 Mb)
17:30
Hiroshi Yoshinari,
Tomonori Azumaya, Tetsuichiro Funamoto, Akira Kusaka, Orio Yamamura
and Akira Nishimura
Numerical simulations of spatio-temporal distribution of juvenile
walleye pollock around Hidaka Bay (P1-D1-6183)
(pdf,
0.4 Mb)
17:45
Jon Brodziak,
Kevin Piner and Dean Courtney
Modeling recruitment responses of striped marlin (Tetrapturus
audax) and swordfish (Xiphias
gladius) to environmental variability in the North
Pacific (P1-D1-6396)
(pdf,
1.3 Mb)
18:00
Kerim Aydin, Nicholas
A. Bond, Enrique N. Curchitser, Georgina A. Gibson, Kate Hedström,
Albert J. Hermann and Ivonne Ortiz
Integrating data, fieldwork, and models into an ecosystem-level
forecasting synthesis: The modeling challenge of the Bering
Ecosystem Study/Bering Sea Integrated Research Program (BEST-BSIERP)
(P1-D1-6215) (waiting for permission)
18:15
Julia L. Blanchard,
Nicholas K. Dulvy, Robert Holmes, Manuel Barange and Simon Jennings
Potential climate change impacts on fish production from 20
large marine ecosystems around the world (P1-D1-6275) (waiting for permission)