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Session 3. Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and their uncertainty

Kyung-Il Chang (Seoul National University, Korea)
Corinna Schrum (University of Bergen, Norway)

Invited Speakers:
Noel Keenlyside (Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway)
Markus Meier (Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut, Sweden)
Ryan Rykaczewski (Princeton University, USA)

Within the last decades increasing scientific evidence indicates that climate change is occurring and impacting the functioning and structuring of regional marine ecosystems on various scales in various ways. Politicians and environmental and fisheries managers increasingly demand answers from scientist to assess regional impacts and future changes and risks for regional marine ecosystems and marine resources. Consequently, scientific efforts have been undertaken recently to develop tools and dynamically consistent methods to assess the regional climate change impacts to the marine ecosystems. These projections typically build on future climate change scenarios from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and involve model chains with modelling tools for various regional parts of the marine ecosystems, such as coupled physical-biological models for the lower trophic levels, IBMs (individual
based models) for fish larvae, multi-species or end-to-end models. Such projections involve a number of practical and conceptual challenges and are subject to uncertainties that arise from the baseline global climate projections and downstream modelling tools.

This session consists of papers on various aspects related to climate change projections for global and regional marine physical, biogeochemical and ecological systems, such as contributions related to: (i) projected changes, risks and potential chances, (ii) various downscaling methods (bias corrections, delta change) and their impacts on dynamic consistency of the projections and (iii) uncertainties in projections and error propagation through the model chain. We are seeking a lively and open discussion about potentials and limitations of climate change projections and downscaling to marine ecosystems.

Thursday, May 17, Day 1
Ryan R. Rykaczewski, John P. Dunne, Charles A. Stock, James R. Watson and Jorge L. Sarmiento
Connectivity between basin-scale and local processes influences regional ecosystem responses to increases in upper-ocean stratification (S3-8159), Invited
[pdf, 3.4 Mb]
Jason Holt, Momme Butenschön, Sarah Wakelin, Yuri Artioli, Icarus Allen, James Harle, Jason Lowe and Jonathan Tinker
Climate change impacts on shelf and coastal marine ecosystems: Contrasting ocean-shelf exchange, stratification, and temperature effects on the northwest European shelf (S3-8272)
[pdf, 2.1 Mb]
Dhanya Pushpadas, Corinna Schrum and Ute Daewel
Climate change impacts on the North and Baltic Sea ecosystems: An assessment based on IPCC AR4 and AR5 models (S3-8162)
[pdf, N/A]
Corinna Schrum, Bjørn Ådlandsvik, Richard Bellerby, Ute Daewel, Trond Kristensen and Dhanya Pushpadas
Dynamic downscaling to marine ecosystems (S3-8292)
[pdf, N/A]
Noel Keenlyside
Near-term climate prediction: New opportunities and challenges (S3-8124), Invited
[pdf, 4.1 Mb]
Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne and Jasmin John
Augmenting earth system models to capture global-scale energy flows through the planktonic food web to fish (S3-8157)
[pdf, 1 Mb]
Yang-Ki Cho, Gwang-Ho Seo, Byoung-Ju Choi and Kwang-Yul Kim
Development of a regional ocean climate model for the northwest Pacific marginal seas (S3-8245)
[pdf, N/A]
Ute Daewel, Corinna Schrum and Dhanya Pushpadas
Impact of climate changes on North Sea Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) larval survival: A modeling study (S3-8131)
[pdf, 1 Mb]
Enrique N. Curchitser, Kenneth A. Rose, Kate Hedstrom, Jerome Fiechter, Miguel Bernal, Shin-ichi Ito, Alan Haynie and Francisco E. Werner
Development of a climate-to-fish-to-fishers model: Implementation in the eastern Pacific Sardine and Anchovy system (S3-8314)
[pdf, N/A]
H.E. Markus Meier, Helén C. Andersson, Kari Eilola, Bo G. Gustafsson, Ivan Kuznetsov, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Thomas Neuman and Oleg P. Savchuk
Hypoxia in future climates: A model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea (S3-8001), Invited
[pdf, 2.1 Mb]
Manal M. Sabrah and Azza A. El-Ganainy
Relationship between coral reef degradation and overexploitation of coral reef fishes in El-Tur region, Egyptian Red Sea coast (S3-8264)
[pdf, 1 Mb]
Jose Fernandes, William Cheung, Simon Jennings and Alastair Grant
Projecting distribution changes in marine fishes and invertebrates by integrating trophic interactions (S3-7944)
(permission to post denied, contact presenter)
Pavel A. Salyuk and Oleg A. Bukin
Interactions between regional climate-forming factors and phytoplankton communities in the north-western Pacific (S3-8111)
[pdf, 1.8 Mb]
Hyunwoo Lee, Ki-Tae Park, Kitack Lee, Hae Jin Jeong and Yeong Du Yoo
Prey-dependent retention of dimethylsulfoniopropionate by mixotrophic dinoflagellates (S3-8117)
[pdf, 1.3 Mb]
Friday, May 18, Day 2
Cody Szuwalski and André E. Punt
Reaching management goals under a changing climate: A management strategy evaluation of snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) fishery in the eastern Bering Sea (S3-7945)
[pdf, 1 Mb]
Yun Ho Kang, Se-Jong Ju, Kyoung-Soon Shin, Young-Gyu Park, Sang-Duk Choi, Kyeong-Ho Han and Ho-Seop Yoon
Predicting climate change-induced fishery shrink through bottom-up control around the southern waters of Korea by using a flow trophic model (S3-8033)
[pdf, 1.2 Mb]
James R. Watson, Charles A. Stock, Ryan R. Rykaczewski and Jorge L. Sarmiento
Quantifying the distribution and dynamics of forage fish by using a size-based ecosystem model (S3-8158)
[pdf, 1.9 Mb]
Tomohiro Yasuda, Yusuke Tanaka, Junichi Ninomiya, Sota Nakajo, Nobuhito Mori and Hajime Mase
Hindcast and historical assessment of Cyclone Tomas and climate change impact analysis on
tropical cyclones in the South Pacific (S3-8259)
[pdf, 2.4 Mb]
Yang Liu, Sei-Ichi Saitoh, I. Nyoman Radiarta and Toru Hirawake
Impact of climate change on the development of marine aquaculture: A case study on the Japanese scallop in Dalian, China, using satellite remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems-based models (S3-8132)
[pdf, 1.8 Mb]
Tore Johannessen and Tron Frede Tingstad
Do phytoplankton, bacteria, and heterotrophic nanoflagellates gain competitive advantages by sacrificing parts of their clonal populations in favour of receiving resources for continuous growth? (S3-7984)
(permission to post denied, contact presenter)
  • Symposium Scope
  • Venue
  • Organizers
  • Speakers
  • Scientific Program
  • Schedule
  • Registration
        Registration Summary
  • Abstract Submission
        Submitted abstracts
  • Publication
        Book of Abstracts
  • Financial Support
  • Transportation
  • Visa
  • Accommodation
  • Useful Information
  • Social Events
  • Symposium Announcement
  • Symposium Poster
  • Contact
  • NEWS
    Important Dates
    August 1 , 2011
  • Abstract submission opens
  • Financial support application opens
  • Registration opens
    September 15 , 2011
  • Deadline for submissions of proposals and workshops
    September 30 , 2011
  • Workshop acceptance notification
    January 13 , 2012
  • Abstract submission deadline (extended)
  • Financial support application deadline (extended)
  • Early registration deadline (extended)
    February 6 , 2012
  • Abstract acceptance notification
  • Financial support grant notification
    May 14-20 , 2012
  • Symposium and associated workshops
    June 15 , 2012
  • Manuscript submission deadline
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