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Session 9. Marine tipping points in the earth system

Gretta Pecl (University of Tasmania, Australia)
Martin Visbeck (IFM-GEOMAR, Germany)

Invited Speakers:
Mike Litzow (University of Tasmania, Australia)
Jacob Schewe (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany)

The ocean plays a central role in the regional and global climate system. Its circulation, temperature and salinity patterns, nutrient distributions and chemical composition are mainly influenced by changes in the atmosphere and fluxes from the land. This ocean state provides the basis for the marine ecosystem, which itself has several complex interdependencies. From complex system theory we know that many systems tend to respond in an almost linear fashion to changes in the forcing. However, at some point a critical value can be reached, and the system responds with a dramatic switch-like behavior into a new stable state, having passed a critical tipping point. Evidence for tipping points in nature is often generated only after the consequences of a major shift become obvious. Predicting the existence and effects of tipping points on ocean state or ecosystem function are major, and likely increasing, challenges for both scientists and resource managers. This session will provide an overview of some of the known tipping points in the marine system and invites contributions to elaborate on our mechanistic understanding of these or provide evidence or a strong theoretical basis for new tipping points. Disciplines to be covered range from ocean circulation dynamics, sea ice formation, de-oxygenation, through to dramatic shifts in ecosystem structure and function, and beyond.

Friday, May 18
Jacob Schewe and Anders Levermann
Rapid transitions in the horizontal ocean circulation (S9-8188), Invited
[pdf, 1.3 Mb]
Michael A. Litzow, Franz J. Mueter and Dan Urban
Rising variance as a leading indicator of tipping points in marine ecosystems: A test using Alaskan crustacean data (S9-8113), Invited
[pdf, 1.8 Mb]
Elena I. Ustinova and Yury D. Sorokin
Tipping points: Shifts in climatic variables or their relationships? Examples for the Far-Eastern Seas (S9-8184)
[pdf, 1 Mb]
Christian Möllmann, Justus van Beusekom, Rabea Diekmann, Jens Floeter and Axel Temming
Multi-level oscillating trophodynamic control causes regime shifts in large marine ecosystem (S9-8149)
[pdf, 1.2 Mb]
Hongjun Li, Qing Yang and Jingfeng Fan
Long-term responses of zooplankton in northern Yellow Sea of China: Implications of climate change (S9-7994)
[pdf, 1.2 Mb]
Hans-Juergen Hirche, Michael Karcher and Ksenia N. Kosobokova
The future of Arctic zooplankton: Interplay between advection, life history traits and trophodynamics (S9-8271)
(permission to post denied, contact presenter)
Yury Zuenko
Resonance effect of spawning match with spring bloom for some fish species in the Japan/East Sea (S9-8073)
[pdf, 0.5 Mb]
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    Important Dates
    August 1 , 2011
  • Abstract submission opens
  • Financial support application opens
  • Registration opens
    September 15 , 2011
  • Deadline for submissions of proposals and workshops
    September 30 , 2011
  • Workshop acceptance notification
    January 13 , 2012
  • Abstract submission deadline (extended)
  • Financial support application deadline (extended)
  • Early registration deadline (extended)
    February 6 , 2012
  • Abstract acceptance notification
  • Financial support grant notification
    May 14-20 , 2012
  • Symposium and associated workshops
    June 15 , 2012
  • Manuscript submission deadline
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