Joint ICES/PICES Theme Session for the 2011 ICES Annual Science Conference:

Title: Atmospheric forcing of the Northern Hemisphere ocean gyres, and the subsequent impact on the adjacent marine climate and ecosystems

Conveners: Jürgen Alheit (ICES/Germany), Hjálmar Hátún (ICES/Faroe Islands), Emanuele Di Lorenzo (PICES/USA) and Ichiro Yasuda (PICES/Japan)

Description: Recently, it has become apparent that the dynamics of the North Pacific and Atlantic subpolar and subtropical gyres have considerable impacts on the adjacent marine ecosystems:

• The large decline of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre after the mid-1990s resulted in a) much elevated temperatures and salinities in the northeastern Atlantic (Hátún et al. 2005), b) increased abundances of phytoplankton in this region, c) decreased abundances of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, d) increased abundances of several warmer-water copepods, e) expanded spawning distribution and a more westerly post-spawning migration of the pelagic gadoid blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) and f) a large increase in the spawning stock of this fish species (Hátún et al., 2009a; Hátún et al. 2009b).


• Notable changes in the fish and zooplankton communities (invasions, changes in abundance and biogeographic range shifts) in the North and Baltic seas were observed in the mid-1990s in association with the contraction of the subpolar gyre of the Atlantic (Alheit et al. 2010, ICES CM/S: 14).


• Low-frequency changes in the large-scale transport of the North Pacific gyres drive large-amplitude fluctuations of physical and biological parameters along the eastern boundary current systems of the California Current and Gulf of Alaska (Di Lorenzo et al. 2008; 2009). There is also evidence that changes in gyre-scale circulation are propagated by Rossby waves to the western boundary in the Kuroshio & Oyashio region (Nonaka et al. 2006; Taguchi et al., 2005; 2007; Ceballos et al., 2009). This east-west connection across the North Pacific, and the fact that a large fraction of the atmospheric variability that drives the changes in the North Pacific gyres originates from ENSO dynamics (Di Lorenzo et al. 2010), provides a mechanism to understand coherent ecosystem variations across the North Pacific and potentially across the Northern Hemisphere ocean gyres.


• SST and MLD regime shifts in the Kuroshio/Oyashio system in the late 1980s probably caused the collapse of the Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) (Noto and Yasuda,1999; Nishikawa and Yasuda, 2008) and the recovery of the Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) (Itoh et al. 2009), and a relation to meridional shifts of gyre sytem fronts is likely (Alheit and Bakun 2010).


• Anchovy/sardine alternation in the Humboldt Current in response to large-scale water mass advection (Alheit and Bakun 2010).

The theme session aims at bringing together marine scientists from the Pacific and the Atlantic, respectively, to compare results from both oceans in order to gain a better understanding of the apparent gyre-ecosystem linkages. We invite atmospheric scientists, physical oceanographers and biologists to present papers on (1) the atmospheric driving mechanisms of these basin-scale gyres, (2) the internal dynamics of gyre systems, and (3) the impact of the gyres on the adjacent marine ecosystems.

Joint ICES/PICES Theme Session for the 2011 ICES Annual Science Conference:

Title: Atlantic redfish and Pacific rockfish: Comparing biology, ecology, assessment and management strategies for Sebastes spp.

Conveners: Benjamin Planque (ICES/Norway), Paul Spencer (PICES/USA), Christoph Stransky (ICES/Germany) and Steve Cadrin (ICES/USA)

Description: Redfish in the Atlantic Ocean and rockfish in the Pacific Ocean (Sebastes spp.) are closely related and commercially important species. Active research is taking place in both oceanic basins but, despite the similarity of Sebastes species, little work has been done to compare the current state of knowledge for Atlantic redfish and Pacific rockfish. Recent genetic studies have identified new species and provided novel insight in populations’ spatial structure. Observation methods are being developed on the habitat use of rockfish for various life-history stages, and new survey methodologies involving both trawl and acoustic gear are being investigated to address the occurrence of Sebastes in untrawlable grounds. The objective of this theme session is to review current progress and key questions on the biology, ecology, observation methodologies, assessment models, and management approaches of Sebastes in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. The synthesis of information from these areas would not only enhance our knowledge of Sebastes populations, but also provide an opportunity to address practical issues such as survey techniques, assessment methods, and management strategies.

Joint ICES/PICES Theme Session for the 2011 ICES Annual Science Conference:

Title: Recruitment processes: Early life history dynamics – from eggs to juveniles

Conveners: Richard D.M. Nash (ICES/Norway), Ed Houde (ICES/USA), and Rick Brodeur (PICES/USA)

Description: Variability in recruitment success remains a significant issue in understanding the reproductive dynamics of marine organisms. The issue has been prominent since the days of Hjort in the early 20th century. Recently, there has been resolution of many questions related to recruitment variability and its causes, but the roles of life stages in control and regulation remain largely unresolved. Recruitment processes determine numbers of individuals surviving from eggs through to the stage joining the adult stock. Survival rates vary widely among species, within a species, between stocks and over temporal and spatial scales. While the preponderance of ‘recruitment research’ emphasizes fishes, there is opportunity and need to compare recruitment processes in marine vertebrates and invertebrates. Pre-recruit survival rates and processes differ during ontogeny in both groups. Nevertheless, until recently research and understanding have been focused on the earliest life stages, primarily eggs and larvae, rather than early life history as a whole. In the sea, variability in reproductive dynamics is initially generated by the adults through variable egg production or quality, which then is amplified or dampened through the egg-larval pelagic phases, during metamorphosis/settlement, and through the juvenile stage on the nursery ground. In addition, survival through the first winter can be critical in determining recruited year-class size. The relative importance of density-independent and density-dependent processes acting on early life stages continues to be poorly understood.
The theme session will welcome contributions on:

• Comparative research on factors controlling survival in early life (pre-recruit) stages of marine invertebrates and vertebrates;


• Research that considers parental effects on early life stages and recruitment;


• Research that considers the contribution of temporally and spatially separated components of the reproductive output to ‘recruitment’;


• The importance of transition stages e.g. hatch, metamorphosis and settlement on the survival of young stages of marine vertebrates and invertebrates.

Indicators of Status and Change within North Pacific Marine Ecosystems: A FUTURE Workshop

(by invitation and application only)

Timing: April 26–28, 2011

Location: East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, U.S.A.
This workshop will be held in the Asia Room at the East-West Center (EWC) on the University of Hawaii campus, bus transportation between the Ala Moana Hotel and the venue will be provided.

Travel: The airport code of Honolulu is “HNL”. Other than domestic flights from many cities in the US, there are also international direct flights from Canada, Japan and Korea.

Accommodation and Visa

Conveners: Thomas Therriault (AICE-AP; Canada), Jacquelynne King (COVE-AP; Canada) and Sachihiko Itoh (Japan)

Workshop Description
Ecosystems are affected by a number of natural stressors and, more recently, an increased number of anthropogenic ones. Ultimately, these stressors result in changes to ecosystem structure and function, which in turn can affect their overall productivity and the societies that depend on them. Metrics of ecosystem status are required to measure impacts of stressors and monitor change. Ecosystem indicators also could be used to identify systems that are resilient or vulnerable to stressors.

One of the themes of the PICES FUTURE Science Plan focuses on ecosystem resiliency and vulnerability to stressors and how these attributes might change in the in the future. In order to ensure scientists have the ability to detect ecosystem-level changes in a consistent and standardized way, common metrics must be developed. Further, in an attempt to understand the amount of inherent variability in marine ecosystems, these metrics also need to incorporate measures of uncertainty that can be conveyed to end users, including managers and policy makers.

The goals of this workshop will be to identify:
1) means of determining ecosystem resilience or vulnerability;
2) ecosystem-level indicators of status and change, including but not limited to fisheries-based indicators;
3) methods to characterize uncertainty in these indicators;
4) common ecosystem indicators to be used for regional comparisons by the PICES’ community.

Please review the FUTURE Science Plan prior to this workshop (http://www.pices.int/members/scientific_programs/FUTURE/FUTURE-main.aspx). It outlines the key research questions (on pages 3-4) that underlie the objectives of this workshop.

List of participants

Abstracts

Discussion Elements

PRESENTATIONS

Supporting Information:
This proposed workshop will consider progress since:

• the 2004 IOC/SCOR/GLOBEC/ICES/PICES-sponsored symposium “Quantitative Ecosystem Indicators for Fisheries Management” with an emphasis on North Pacific ecosystems (papers published in the ICES Journal of Marine Science : http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/62/3.toc);


• the Report of PICES Working Group 19 on Ecosystem-based Management Science and its Application to the North Pacific. PICES Sci. Rep. No. 37, which provided some recommendations on fisheries-based ecosystem indicators for the PICES’ regions.

Inter-sessional Science Board meeting (ISB-2011)
Closed meeting (for PICES Science Board Committee Members)

Timing: April 29–30, 2011

Location: Honolulu, HI, U.S.A.
This meeting will be held at the Ala Moana Hotel, tentatively we have different rooms on the two days: Carnation Room on April 29 and Plumeria Room on April 30. (This SB Meeting includes a meeting of the Joint PICES/ICES Study Group on “Developing a Framework for Scientific Cooperation in Northern Hemisphere Marine Science”, structure and details to be announced.)

Travel: The airport code of Honolulu is “HNL”. Other than domestic flights from many cities in the US, there are also international direct flights from Canada, Japan and Korea.

Dinner: A group dinner for the SB Meeting is planned for April 30. Details will be announced later.

Accommodation and Visa

ICES/PICES Workshop on “Reaction of Northern Hemisphere ecosystems to climate events: A Comparison”

Timing: May 2–6, 2011

Location: Hamburg, Germany

Conveners: Jürgen Alheit (ICES/Germany), Christian Möllmann (ICES/Germany), Sukgeun Jung (PICES/Korea) and Yoshiro Watanabe (PICES/Japan)

Workshop Description (more on goals and description, methods)
Regime shifts have been observed, espcially during the late 1980s, in several northern hemisphere marine ecosystems in the Atlantic and the Pacific such as the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, Gulf of Alaska/Northern California Current, the Oyashio-Kuroshio System and the Japan/East Sea which all have important small pelagic resources. A respective multi-authored manuscript has been drafted by an earlier joint ICES/PICES workshop describing the associated climatic teleconnection patterns between these ecosystems which are widely separated from each other. The present workshop will extend this descriptive exercise in a quantitative way. Long-term time series of physical, chemical and biological variables from these regional ecosystems will be compared and analyzed by a team of experts from PICES and ICES countries using multivariate statistics. These studies will yield further insight into how ecosystems change state, as, for example, the rates and magnitudes of change are not the same for the different systems reflecting regional specific differences in the forcing factors. In any one geographical ecosystem the expression of changes resulting from climatic forcing may take on different patterns reflecting the detailed mechanisms and local processes that are influential within the constraints of the larger scale forcing. However, there is growing evidence that although climate forcing appears to be a significant trigger for many regime shifts, those ecosystems subject to high levels of human activity such as fishing pressures appear to be at greater risk to this phenomena).

This workshop will conduct a meta-analysis of changes in ecosystem structure and function over several northern hemisphere ecosystems in relation to climate and other anthropogenic drivers. The goals of the workshop are to:
a) Assemble multivariate data sets of long-term time series of physical, chemical and biological variables from regional ecosystems;
b) Identify trends and abrupt changes (i.e. regime shifts) in the regional data sets using multivariate statistical and discontinuity analyses;
c) Identify the region-specific importance of climate events relative to anthropogenic forcing factors such as eutrophication and exploitation;
d) Conduct a meta-analysis of ecosystem trends and their potential drivers over all northern hemisphere ecosystem.

ICES/PICES Workshop on “Biological consequences of a decrease in sea ice in Arctic and Sub-Arctic Seas”

Timing: May 22, 2011

Location: Seattle, U.S.A. (in conjunction with the 2nd ESSAS Open Science Meeting (http://www.pices.int/meetings/international_symposia/2011/ESSAS/default.aspx

Conveners: Anne Hollowed (PICES/USA) and Harald Loeng (ICES/Norway)

Workshop Description
This workshop will review life history information and habitat associations to assess the risk of immigration and settlement of new biological populations in the Arctic and surrounding shelf seas in response to the retreat of sea ice. Criteria necessary to establish new species in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding areas will be developed and compared to expected conditions based on climate scenarios. Ways for cooperation in information sharing between groups charged with managing the Arctic will be explored and the results of the workshop will be reported to both PICES and ICES scientists working on these issues.

Workshop on “Comparative analyses of marine bird and mammal responses to climate change”

Timing: May 22, 2011

Location: Seattle, U.S.A. (in conjunction with the 2nd ESSAS Open Science Meeting (http://www.pices.int/meetings/international_symposia/2011/ESSAS/default.aspx

Conveners: Rolf Ream (USA), William J. Sydeman (USA) and Yutaka Watanuki (Japan)

Workshop Description
This workshop will focus on how to best integrate ongoing and new research on marine birds and mammals into long-term PICES and ESSAS programs and objectives; the overarching goal is to produce a strategic vision and plan for activities of the PICES MBMAP over the next 5 years. Specific workshop objectives include (1) producing an outline of potential new goals reflecting climate change impacts on marine birds and mammals in the northern hemisphere, (2) design and implementation of sub-groups to work on specific areas of interest including (i) models of climate impact (e.g., NEMURO.BIRD), (ii) conservation of threatened and endangered species, and (iii) communication, and (3) initial writing of strategic plan documents. The workshop will include some oral presentations, but the emphasis will be on discussions leading to planning documents.

International Workshop on “Development and application of Regional Climate Models”

Scientific program and detailed information

Timing: October 11–12, 2011 (immediately prior to the 2011 PICES Annual Meeting)

Location: Incheon, Korea

Conveners: Kyung-Il Chang (Korea), Michael Foreman (Canada), Chan Joo Jang (Korea) and Angelica Peña (Canada)

Workshop Description
Both global and regional numerical climate models are important tools in understanding physical mechanisms involved in and controlling climate change and variability at multiple spatio-temporal scales. They may also provide the unique possibility to construct physically based future climate projections, the starting point for many socio-economic impact and adaptation considerations to future climate change. Global and regional modeling complement each other. While the global coupled general circulation models (GCMs) may be capable of capturing the large-scale mean climate behavior, especially those related to anthropogenic forcing, they often cannot be directly used for assessing regional climate impacts mainly due to their coarse spatial scale. Furthermore, they are usually not successful in capturing regionally important physical processes and reproducing higher order statistics and extreme events. Regional climate modeling has been introduced to fill the gap between the GCMs and the growing demand of climate predictions and scenarios on highly-resolved spatio-temporal scales. Various approaches and parameterizations have been adopted in existing regional climate models (RCMs). This two-day workshop will provide a platform to discuss various aspects of regional climate modeling such as different approaches, downscaling, parameterizations, and coupling to the GCMs. It will also encompass the coupling of RCMs to ecosystem models.