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Session 1. North Pacific ecosystems today, and challenges in understanding and forecasting change

Co-Convenors: John Stein (SB), Michael Dagg (BIO), Mikhail Stepanenko (FIS), Steven Rumrill (MEQ), Hiroya Sugisaki (MONITOR), Michael Foreman (POC), Bernard Megrey (TCODE), Thomas Therriault (AICE), Hiroaki Saito (COVE), Robin Brown (SOFE), Fangli Qiao (China) and Sinjae Yoo (Korea)

Climate change and increasing development of coastal areas and their watersheds are two of the most serious threats to marine ecosystems in the North Pacific. It is probable that interactions between these stressors will be complex and consequences unknown and difficult to predict. Knowledge of the sensitivity and adaptability of natural and managed ecosystems to climate change is limited and confounded by the interaction of climate change with additional stressors such as fishing, habitat loss, and pollution. While inter-annual and decadal variability are dominant sources of climate variability in the North Pacific, global warming is expected to contribute significantly to future climate change. To improve our understanding of marine ecosystems of the North Pacific, it is imperative we identify the contribution of climate change to overall ecosystem change, and to strengthen our ability to forecast how marine and coastal ecosystems will adjust or respond to ongoing stresses from climate change and other human activities.

This symposium will focus on a series of major issues that are affecting North Pacific marine ecosystems including, but not limited to: changes in cycling of carbon and other elements, increasing acidification, decreasing oxygen concentrations, eutrophication, chemical and biological pollution, changing patterns of oceanic circulation, changes in the productivity and distribution of species (including shifts in migratory routes), shifts in species interactions, increased sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. Ideally, the contribution of climate change to ecosystem characteristics can be quantified and the information made available to the 5th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scheduled for 2013-2014.


Monday, October 25, 2010, Day 1

John A. Barth (Keynote)
Observing change in the Northeast Pacific: Past, present and FUTURE
(waiting for permission)


Enrique N. Curchitser (Invited)
Modeling the Earth System: Are we ready? (S1-6770)
(pdf, 2.8 Mb)


Yasuhiro Yamanaka, Takeshi Okunishi, Taketo Hashioka, Hiroshi Sumata and Shin-ichi
Predicting marine ecosystem responses to climate change by a 3-D high-resolution ecosystem model (S1-6813)
(waiting for permission)


Neil S. Banas
Limits on predictability in a diversity-resolving plankton model: A strategy for ensemble ecosystem forecasting (S1-6442)
(pdf, 0.8 Mb)


Evan A. Howell, Jeffrey J. Polovina and John Dunne
Modeling the central North Pacific ecosystem response to predicted climate variations and fishery management scenarios (S1-6846)
(pdf, 1.8 Mb)


Minhan Dai (Invited)
Coastal ocean carbon cycling – Current understanding and challenges (S1-6584)
(pdf, 3.3 Mb)


James C. Orr (Invited)
Chemical potential for impacts of ocean acidification on Pacific Ocean ecosystems (S1-6853)
(waiting for permission)


Jeffrey J. Polovina, John Dunne, Phoebe Woodworth and Evan A. Howell
Projected expansion of the subtropical biome and contraction of the temperate and equatorial upwelling biomes in the North Pacific under global warming (S1-6441)
(pdf, 0.7 Mb)


Kenneth O. Coyle, Sarah Hinckley, Wei Cheng, Georgina Gibson, Albert J. Hermann
and Kate Hedstrom

Production on the Gulf of Alaska shelf: Spatial-temporal expansion of GLOBEC field measurements using an ecosystem model embedded in a circulation model (S1-6658)
(pdf, 1.5 Mb)


Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Julie E. Keister, Sanae Chiba, Vincent Combes, Andrew C. Thomas, P. Ted Strub, Harold Batchelder, Steven J. Bograd, Peter J.S. Franks and William T. Peterson
The Pacific Boundary Ecosystems and Climate Study (POBEX) (S1-6757)
(pdf, 1.6 Mb)


Albert J. Hermann, Kerim Aydin, Nicholas A. Bond, Wei Cheng, Enrique N. Curchitser, Georgina A. Gibson, Kate Hedstrom, Ivonne Ortiz, Muyin Wang and Phyllis J. Stabeno (Invited)
Modes of biophysical variability on the Bering Sea shelf (S1-6689)
(pdf, 1.3 Mb)


Michael A. Litzow and Franz J. Mueter
Hare and Mantua updated: Four decades of climate-biology covariation in the Northeast
Pacific (S1-6491)
(pdf, 1.5 Mb)


Muyin Wang, James E. Overland and Nicholas A. Bond
Contributions of episodic events in decadal climate variation of the Bering Sea (S1-6544)
(permission to post denied, contact presenter)

George L. Hunt, Jr., Kenneth O. Coyle, Lisa Eisner, Edward V. Farley, Ron Heintz, Franz J. Mueter, Jeffrey M. Napp, James E. Overland, Patrick Ressler, Sigrid Salo and Phyllis J. Stabeno
Climate impacts on eastern Bering Sea food webs: A synthesis of new data and an assessment of the Oscillating Control Hypothesis (S1-6590)
(permission to post denied, contact presenter)
Hiroaki Saito, Shin-ichi Ito, Atsushi Kawabata, Mitsutaku Makino, Shoshiro Minobe, Masami Nonaka, Takeshi Okunishi, Kazutaka Takahashi and Ichiro Yasuda
Forecasting fish species alternation: Results of the SUPRFISH programme and remaining issues (S1-6704)
(pdf, 2.8 Mb)
Shin-ichi Ito, Takeshi Okunishi, Michio J. Kishi and Muyin Wang
Projection of Pacific saury response to future climate change (S1-6660)
(pdf, 0.8 Mb)
Friday, October 29, Day 2
Frank Whitney, Steven Bograd and Tsuneo Ono (Invited)
How does expanding hypoxia affect the nutrient budget of the subarctic Pacific? (S1-6575)
(pdf, 1 Mb)
Tsuneo Ono
Oxygen decline in the continental slope waters off-Japan and its potential influence on groundfishes (S1-6561)
(pdf, 0.6 Mb)
Steven J. Bograd, Carmen G. Castro, Francisco P. Chavez, Curtis A. Collins, Vincent Combes, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Mark Ohman, Ryan Rykaczewski and Frank Whitney
The California Undercurrent: 1949–2009 and beyond (S1-6798)
J. Anthony Koslow, Ralf Goericke and William Watson
Climate and fish assemblages of the southern California Current, 1951–2008 (S1-6633)
(pdf, 1.3 Mb)
William W.L. Cheung, Thomas A. Okey and Richard D. Brodeur
Projecting future changes in distributions of pelagic nekton along the west coast of North America (S1-6640)
(permission to post denied, contact presenter)
Mingjiang Zhou (Invited)
Understanding harmful algal blooms in eutrophic coastal waters: Necessity of end-to-end studies (S1-6724)
(permission to post denied, contact presenter)
Xuelei Zhang, Z.L. Wang, J.H. Liu, Q.S. Wei, S.L. Fan, M.Z. Fu, Y. Li, P. Sun, P. Liu, Q.Z. Xu, R.X. Li and M.Y. Zhu
Benthic records indicate increasing nutrient availability and primary production in the Yellow Sea (S1-6426)
Jun-ya Shibata, Ryu Isonaka, Hideki Hamaoka, Kazumasa Matsumoto, Tetsuya Nanko, Todd W. Miller, Hidejiro Onishi, Tadao Kunihiro and Koji Omori
Relationship between food web structure of a lower trophic level community and transfer efficiency in a coastal sea (S1-6471)
(waiting for permission)
Sophia C. Johannessen and Robie W. Macdonald
Effects of local and global change on an inland sea: The Strait of Georgia, Canada (S1-6539)
(pdf, 0.7 Mb)
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