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Session 4. Regional models for predictions of climate change impacts: methods, uncertainties and challenges

Shoshiro Minobe (Hokkaido University, Japan)
Enrique N. Curchitser (Institute of Marine and Coastal Science,
          Rutgers University, USA)

Plenary Speaker:
Arne Biastoch (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Germany)

Invited Speaker:
Shin-ichi Ito (FRA, Japan)

Predicting climate change impacts on regional ocean processes and marine ecosystems is challenging because it (1) involves advanced and high-resolution models for the ocean and its resources, (2) has concrete consequences in terms of regional and national management of ecosystem services, and (3) aims to provide direct scientific support in the implementation of the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management.  A number of practical and conceptual challenges occurring at the regional scale will be highlighted in this session.
First, regional projections are subject to uncertainties that arise from the baseline global climate projections, the downstream modelling tools and in combining models. Regional models (RM), including regional air-sea coupled models or regional ocean models, are the starting points for understanding and projecting climate change on a regional scale. While global climate models are capable of capturing the large-scale mean climate behavior, they have limitations for regional assessments due to their coarse spatial resolutions. We welcome papers addressing the downscaling of global climate models to regional scale, including a variety of methods, both statistical and dynamical, such as high-resolution regional ocean circulation models with embedded biogeochemical models, and statistical models relating local population statistics to climate forcing or climate indices.

Secondly, expanding the RM projections to predicting climate change impacts on regional ecosystems in combination with other drivers such as fishing, requires the integration of ecosystem processes and knowledge on the ecosystem functioning, though a combination of multiple models. The use of multiple models can be three fold: (1) using several multidisciplinary models to build end-to-end models from the physics to the high trophic levels and their exploitation; (2) using multiple models to address uncertainty of the projections due to model structure and processes (e.g., envelope approach, or comparative approach across models); and (3) using multiple hybrid approaches to integrate most of available information and data such as combination of climate statistical niche models and foodweb models. We welcome papers addressing the challenges and uncertainties in combining multiple models for regional global change impacts on ecosystems, and provide the opportunity for papers that combine different modelling approaches in order to improve the projections of global change, including climate change in combination with other stressors such as fishing and pollution.


Shin-ichi Ito, Takeshi Okunishi, Taketo Hashioka, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Naoki Yoshie, Kosei Komatsu and Akinori Takasuka (Invited)
Regional models for projections of climate change impacts on small pelagic fishes in the western North Pacific
[pdf, 2 Mb]


Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne and Jasmin G. John
Trophic amplification of ocean productivity trends in a changing climate
[pdf, 0.5 Mb]


Edson J.R. Pereira and Ilana Wainer
Downscaling the 1990-2100 ocean climate projections for the Arabian Gulf
[pdf, 42 Mb]


Angelica Pena, Diane Masson and Mike Foreman
A regional biogeochemical climate model for the British Columbia continental shelf
[waiting for an updated version]

Rodrigo S. Martins
Reviewing the use of computer-based modelling to study squid larval dispersal: Experiences from South Africa and Brazil
[pdf, 1 Mb]
Illarion Mironov and Alexander Demidov
Comparison numerical models results and hydrographic data in the Atlantic Ocean
[pdf, 3 Mb]
Jonathan Tinker, Jason Lowe, Jason Holt and Rosa Barciela
Marine climate projections for the NW European shelf seas: Dynamically downscaling a perturbed physics ensemble to explore climate uncertainty and temporal response
[pdf, 7.5 Mb]
Ivonne Ortiz, Kerim Aydin and Al Hermann
Fish movement and distribution drivers in a climate to fisheries model for the Bering Sea
[pdf, 4 Mb]
Tarumay Ghoshal and Arun Chakraborty
ROMS hindcast experiments on BOB's extreme events with daily forcing input
[permission to post denied, contact presenter]
Fedor N. Gippius, Alisa Yu. Medvedeva, Elena A. Malyarenko, Victor S. Arkhipkin, Stanislav A. Myslenkov and Galina V. Surkova
Wind wave regime of eastern European seas
[pdf, 2 Mb]
  • Symposium Scope
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  • NEWS

    April 27, 2015
    Deadline for Manuscript submission has been changed from May 1 to May 31, 2015.

    Deadline for Abstract Submission, Eearly Registration, and Financial Support Application has been changed from Oct. 31 to Nov. 3, 2014

    Important Dates
  • May 31, 2015
    [extended from May 1]
    anuscript submission deadline
  • March 21–28, 2015
    Symposium and associated workshops
  • December 15, 2014
    Confirm your presentations and attendance
  • December 5, 2014
    Financial Support Grant notification
    - Declined

    December 15, 2014
    Financial Support Grant notification
    - Approved

  • May 12, 2014
    orkshop acceptance notification
  • April 14, 2014
    orkshop proposal submission deadline
  • November 30, 2014
    Abstract acceptance notification
  • November 3, 2014
    bstract submission deadline

    Financial support application deadline
    Early registration deadline
    mportant Dates
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