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Workshop 8 (POC Topic)
Exploring the predictability and mechanisms of Pacific low frequency variability beyond inter-annual time scales

Co-Sponsored by CLIVAR

Co-Convenors: Emanuele Di Lorenzo (U.S.A.) and Shoshiro Minobe (Japan)

Understanding the dynamics that control climate variability in the Pacific basin is essential for exploring the degree of predictability of the ocean-atmosphere and sea-ice climate systems of the North Pacific. The goal of this workshop is to improve the conceptual and quantitative frameworks used by the PICES community to interpret low-frequency climate variability in the Pacific basin, ranging from interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Contributions are invited on a broad range of topics including: 1) studies that link regional to basin scale dynamics; 2) investigations of "regime shift", specifically the extent to which sharp transitions in the climate system are predictable and connected with low-frequency variations in the ocean-atmosphere and sea-ice systems; (3) studies that separate the stochastic and deterministic components of low-frequency climate fluctuations; (4) analysis of long-term observations collected in regional environments across the Pacific, specifically their relationship to large-scale climate processes as opposed to local-scale dynamics; (5) climate change and how it may impact the statistics of Pacific climate (e.g., frequency of "regime shifts"); and (6) more generally studies that propose new mechanisms underlying low-frequency Pacific climate variability.

October 24-25, 2009
Topic 1: Pacific Large-scale dynamics and variability

Sumant Nigam and Bin Guan (Invited)
Ocean-atmosphere structure of Pacific decadal variability (W8-5931)
(pdf, 3.7 Mb)


Curtis Deutsch and Taka Ito (Invited)
Oxygen variability in the North Pacific (W8-5799)


Sang-Wook Yeh, Yune-Jung Kang, Yign Noh and Arthur J. Miller
Characteristics in the North Pacific mean SST and its variability in climate transition periods


Skip McKinnell and Nate Mantua
Regimelettes – PDO variability in the 21st Century (W8-5882)


Muyin Wang, James E. Overland and Nicholas A. Bond
A means for reducing projection uncertainty of climate models on regional scale (W8-5846)

Topic 2: Tropical / Extratropical connections

Michael Alexander, Daniel J. Vimont, Ping Chang and James Scott (Invited)
The impact of extratropical atmospheric variability on the tropical Pacific: Testing the seasonal footprinting mechanism (W8-5648)


Daniel J. Vimont (Invited)
The role of thermodynamic coupling in connecting subtropical and tropical Pacific climate variations (W8-5762)


Xiaohui Tang, Ping Chang and Fan Wang
Influence of reducing weather noise on ENSO prediction (W8-5741)

Topic 3: Western North Pacific dynamics and variability

Bo Qiu, Shuiming Chen and Niklas Schneider (Invited)
Forced versus intrinsic variability of the Kuroshio Extension system on the decadal timescales
(pdf, 3 Mb)


Shoshiro Minobe, Jiaxu Zhang and Miho Urasawa
Kuroshio Extension variability during the last 50-years and its predictability (W8-5829)


Rong-shuo Cai, Qi-long Zhang and Hong-jian Tan
The long-term transport variation of Kuroshio and its adjacent currents in the western North Pacific Ocean (W8-5554)


Masami Nonaka, Hisashi Nakamura, Bunmei Taguchi, Youichi Tanimoto and Hideharu Sasaki (Invited)
Decadal variability in the oceanic frontal zones in the western North Pacific Ocean (W8-5796)


Elena I. Ustinova and Yury D. Sorokin
Low-frequency fluctuations of thermal conditions in the Far-Eastern Seas and large-scale climate processes (W8-5767)


Konstantin A. Rogachev and Natalia V. Shlyk
Surface freshening and mid-depth warming in the Pacific Western Subarctic since 1950s (W8-5518)

Topic 4: Air Sea interaction and coupled structures

Bunmei Taguchi, Hisashi Nakamura, Masami Nonaka, Nobumasa Komori, Akira Kuwano-Yoshida, Hideharu Sasaki, Koutarou Takaya and Shang-Ping Xie (Invited)
Decadal variability of the Kuroshio/Oyashio Extension fronts and their atmospheric influences (W8-5755)
(pdf, 17 Mb, by request)


Niklas Schneider, Yoshinori Sasaki, Axel Lauer, Bo Qiu, Arthur J. Miller and Detlef Stammer
Extratropical ocean to atmosphere coupling via atmospheric Ekman pumping (W8-5938)

Topic 5: Discussion/Synthesis

Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Niklas Schneider, Kim M. Cobb, Jason Furtado and Michael Alexander
ENSO and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation: An integrated view of Pacific decadal dynamics (W8-5586)
(pdf, 19 Mb, by request)


Arthur J. Miller, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Shoshiro Minobe and Niklas Schneider
North Pacific decadal variability: Current understanding and unresolved issues (W8-5820)
(pdf, 1.5 Mb)

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